Preparation for Mega Auctions/Drafts
Establishing a data-driven, accountable & sustainable philosophy...
Monday morning this week saw the Hundred Wildcard Draft take place, with each team picking two additional players to round off their squad ahead of this summer’s Hundred, which starts on the 23rd July.
In my role as Data Insights Manager at Birmingham Phoenix, we had to select two wildcards for each of the men’s and the women’s teams. We also had to organise a replacement player for our women’s team due to an injury.
Sourcing wildcards and replacement players isn’t the most time-intensive piece of drafting work that a team will do, but it does give teams the opportunity to plug skillset gaps in their squad, foresee difficult future situations or invest in a young talent who has broken through in domestic cricket recently.
Even recruiting several players requires considerable due diligence on a shortlist of players, covering various areas such as data analysis, visual scouting and research into player personality. All of these are critical pieces of the recruitment puzzle, requiring different skills often provided by different people. If it all comes together, it will create a strong recruitment strategy where there’s a degree of shared responsibility, accountability and proven due diligence which can then be reported to stakeholders such as owners or board members.
Now, consider extrapolating that level of research to a huge recruitment event such as the IPL Mega Auction, which will start to pick up focus following yesterday’s conclusion of the T20 World Cup.
With this in mind, I thought I’d document some thoughts about how I would approach setting up a recruitment department at this stage of the auction cycle, around six months before the next Mega Auction.
Key events in the calendar ahead of the 2025 IPL mega auction
Writing this towards the end of June 2024, it is really important for franchises to get this process started relatively quickly, allowing for as much preparation time possible.
Key events in the calendar include two domestic tournaments - Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy and the Vijay Hazare Trophy, with the SMAT (T20) taking place between the 16th October and 6th November last year and the VHT (50 over) running from 23rd November until 16th December. In short - both events take place before the mega auction and performances in those (and indeed, perceived performances) will have bearing on franchises decisions at the auction.
Being prepared for these events should be a non-negotiable for IPL teams. Players in these two white ball tournaments will form the crux of research available to determine long lists of potential auction recruits, trialists and net bowlers.
Considerations following announcement of retention structure
Other key events in the calendar in the next six months or so (and ideally for teams, as soon as possible) surround the league structure and confirmation of rules. Teams would be well advised to lobby for the retention dynamics which suit their current situation (see post-2024 season team analysis here).
Looking at retention details, vital considerations include clarification of the number of retentions permitted and the financial structure of the retentions. Plus, confirmation of the team purses for the 2025 auction, enabling teams to establish retention values as a percentage of the purse (for example, the top retention value of 16 Cr of 90 Cr in 2022 was 17.8% of total purse).
And of course, there will need to be confirmation as to whether the impact sub rule continues, which should lead to assessment from teams focusing on how keeping the rule or removing it will affect market values for different skillsets. I suspect the impact sub rule will stay in place.
Once this is all sorted out, teams need to work out whether the retention prices represent value at these percentages. For example, very few players - maybe only Jasprit Bumrah at MI - are worth more than 20% of a team’s budget. Will the retention values set by the league impact decisions on which players represent value retentions and the number of players which will be retained? They certainly should.
Creating a blueprint of success - what works in the IPL?
This is vital given that there are huge competitive advantages possible in terms of teams in terms of preparation via analytics.
The first port of call for any team should be creation of a blueprint which focuses on how to create a regularly qualifying IPL team, and how that ties into thriving at a team’s home venue. Some teams, such as CSK, have a very strong home record, while others, such as PBKS, have not - and there are reasons and dynamics behind these differences.
I have experience of creating such blueprints in some previous roles and I will be creating an IPL-specific one in the very near future to market to IPL franchises ahead of next year’s mega auction.
Once a blueprint is prepared, teams will have a greater understanding on the type of skillsets which are non-negotiable to create a successful team, in addition to these non-negotiable drivers of success which can create a team capable of winning 70%+ of home matches.
Building an identity
This will also then help with building a team identity. The sheer number of teams in franchise T20 who don’t really have a clear identity shows how little attention is given to this area.
Fortunately, creation of an immediate identity with diligent & targeted recruitment/scouting is very possible ahead of a mega auction where all teams need to largely start from scratch. How many teams in previous mega auctions have recruited a future-proofed squad, with non-negotiables being a world class bowling attack and high intent batters? Not that many.
Even after a mini auction in 2024, SRH were able to overhaul their identity immediately in the recent IPL, turning from a turgid, low-intent team into the best team to watch in the tournament with a non-negotiable high intent batting mentality.
However, this is even easier when a team has to build from scratch, or close to it. In the first season of The Hundred in 2021, Birmingham Phoenix, who I am with, were able to create a similar identity to SRH managed in 2024. If you recruit the players whose skillsets fit that identity, it largely becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The benefits of this identity are numerous. Firstly, it coincides with many drivers of success, leading to winning matches. Furthermore, it is good commercially - more people want to watch and support an attacking team than a negative one. Also, such an approach tends to yield a lot more patience from supporters, because even if results are inconsistent, they are entertained. A coach who underachieves while playing a negative style is looking at a shortcut to unemployment.
Understanding Mega Auction Dynamics
Briefly, ahead of a presumed 3 year cycle, consideration should be given to the value & expected performance levels of players throughout the three-year cycle rather than year one (a mega auction is the best time to invest in younger talent as you can get value for money over 3 years).
Generally, recruiting pre-peak age & peak age players is vital. It is worthwhile being cautious about many 33+ year olds who will be 36+ and in decline by the end of the cycle. That’s not saying that a team shouldn’t recruit veterans - but those who are recruited should be cost-effective (not being a financial burden by year three of the cycle) and have a high peak to decline from.
In terms of future-proofing, look at things like this. It’s better to have a 12%/13%/14% chance of winning the title in years 1/2/3 of the cycle as opposed to 15%/5%/3%. (The 12/13/14% chance across three years represents a 34% chance of a title in the next 3-year auction cycle plus better retention options in the 2028 mega auction compared to 22% and a big turnover of players needed in the second scenario due to older players declining). A lot of coaches would consider taking the higher 15% in year one (a win now mentality) because of job security but it’s not the ideal pathway for a franchise.
Further long-term analytics-based planning
One of the first steps focuses on a mentality change from stakeholders and decision-makers. They will need to move their mindsets away from player names/reputation, instead towards rationalizing the domestic and overseas player pools as commodities and resources.
Understanding expected player performance is vital - not just for the upcoming season but the three year cycle in entirety. Using age curve analysis to understand anticipated player improvement/decline would be very useful in this area. Further, expected player performance analysis requires creation of model-driven player databases, which, to use one example, take into account differences in standards of opposition which players may face. This should be done for both domestic and overseas players.
Put extremely simply - as an example on a basic SMAT level, a run scored against Arunachal Pradesh isn’t of the same value as a run scored against Punjab, even though they are recorded as the same in the tournament’s overall records. How that is quantified, and how effectively it is quantified, is vital in terms of understanding player levels.
As with the how to win blueprint specific to the IPL, I am in the process of refining my player run production/run prevention model which I used with Punjab Kings ahead of the 2022 mega auction. This will also be available to market to teams.
Following the creation of model-driven player databases, teams can create a data-driven long list of players to focus their scouting on during the domestic and regional T20 tournaments and overseas short-format leagues. Having a targeted approach is much more efficient than a scattergun ‘go and see what you find’ approach to scouting, although obviously any talented players who slipped the net should also be highlighted.
Essentially, teams would be well advised to use a network of domestic scouts with a clear focus on players identified in the long list, and in particular, focusing on the clearly identified type of players which suit the required drivers of success highlighted in the blueprint, and the drivers of success for the franchise’s home venue.
For young/high-potential overseas players, IPL franchises can also make use of other franchises in their multi-club ownership model to give game time to potential new overseas recruits in order to have early opportunities to assess their skills & character.
Pre-Auction Planning & Preparation
A few bulletpoints summarising some of my non-negotiable advance analysis areas of focus for auction preparation.
Creation of a run production/run prevention model
Age curve analysis - assisting with understanding expectations of improvement/decline for players
Detailed player database with model-driven expected data
Visual scouting based on the above
Depth charts & decision trees
Mock auction & scenario planning
Anticipating dynamics of rival teams & coaches
Building a market pricing model
Working out the auction from a game theory perspective
I deliberately haven’t gone into any detail regarding building a market pricing model here. It worked very well in the 2022 Mega Auction, where it resulted in 88% of analysed players being sold, and 71% of players were sold within 2 Cr of their estimated market price. Due to this, I am keen to keep my thoughts to myself right now on how I approached this, because it would be extremely valuable for an IPL franchise in the future.
The same goes for my game theory thoughts. Because of my background playing poker to a decent level, and the similarities between tournament poker and the IPL auction, the game theory side of things worked well in 2022. Understanding how you are perceived by other teams, and how you can negatively influence their decision-making, is extremely valuable in an auction environment.
Again, please do get in touch if you would like to discuss these areas, or anything else further. Anyone interested in discussing how I can help their team with strategic management and data-driven analysis, or contribute to any media work, can get in touch at sportsanalyticsadvantage@gmail.com.