IPL Retentions
Which players will be kept by their current franchises?
One of the most common questions I’ve been asked on social media lately is who I would retain if I was in charge of each team. While we don’t know the retention structure and values yet, we can base things on the previous structure ahead of the 2022 mega auction and then have some additional options for franchises if there are more retentions allowed.
The retention values will be a vital consideration. Ahead of 2022, the top retention value was 16 Cr out of a purse of 90 Cr (17.8% of purse). Last year, teams had a budget of 100 Cr, and this could grow further for next year’s season and the subsequent auction cycle.
So, a 16 Cr top retention value would be good value with, say a 100 Cr purse (16% of purse) but a 25 Cr top retention value (25% of purse) would be tough to justify for pretty much any player other than Jasprit Bumrah.
On a broad point, looking at player prices and whether they represent value as a percentage of purse compared to the 2022 retentions is very useful in terms of rationalizing whether a player’s retention makes good financial sense.
Here’s a brief summary of the 2022 retention rules for teams. They can pay the player less than this value to retain the player but the actual amounts below get removed from their purse, so it’s important to re-iterate that there’s no discernible on-pitch benefit to pay a player less than the standard retention value, because that saving cannot be reinvested into other players. It simply goes into the owners pocket.
Personally, I’d prefer more of an open market system than fixed retention values, but I can also understand why people would suggest that system could be open to being gamed by some franchises.
Moving on then, some analysis of each team. The retention decisions are a mix of what I’d do and what I expect the franchise to do. Probably a balance of 70/30 in favour of my opinion. It would be great to hear thoughts but please do keep discussion polite and civil!
Chennai Super Kings
General Overview: MS Dhoni is the key determining factor of plans. Would I retain a player who is soon 43 ahead of a 3 year auction cycle? No. Will CSK retain him? A different matter entirely.
As with some other franchises, they would have a number of players they might want around the 6-12 Cr mark but not necessarily any at 16+ Cr. It’s really difficult to work out a high expected value retention structure, especially at the high end of the salary levels. Probably a team who would prefer lower retention values for the next cycle.
4 Retentions - Potential Structure
5/6 Retentions - Further Options
Potential Buyback/Extra Retention Options
Notable Releases
Delhi Capitals
General Overview: Top two retentions seem very likely, and there’s a further four players who could push for retentions between 4-8 Cr. Moving on older & fitness-affected players from the franchise would be my priority.
4 Retentions - Potential Structure
5/6 Retentions - Further Options
Potential Buyback/Extra Retention Options
Notable Releases
Gujarat Titans
General Overview: Mean-reversion caught up with them in the end in 2024 having significantly outperformed key metrics in the previous 2 seasons. Potential difficulty if Rashid Khan and Shubman Gill both want top slot.
They could potentially look to generating a high turnover of players with a large overhaul.
4 Retentions - Potential Structure
5/6 Retentions - Further Options
Potential Buyback/Extra Retention Options
Notable Releases
Kolkata Knight Riders
General Overview: Would probably like there to be more retentions than many teams, but with a lower price point. It’s potentially difficult to find a player they’d want to retain at 16+ Cr but plenty of options around the 6-10 Cr mark. They do have a lot of 2nd/3rd retention type players.
4 Retentions - Potential Structure
5/6 Retentions - Further Options
Potential Buyback/Extra Retention Options
Notable Releases
Lucknow Super Giants
General Overview: Might be more minded than other franchises to go for more of an overhaul. Difficult to make a case for many compelling retentions.
4 Retentions - Potential Structure
5/6 Retentions - Further Options
Potential Buyback/Extra Retention Options
Notable Releases
Mumbai Indians
General Overview: Bottom of the table with rumoured discontent among players. What I’d be considering (a big clearout) and what they may do (emotional retentions) are probably two different things. Due to this, it is very tough to predict their retention/release decisions.
4 Retentions - Potential Structure
5/6 Retentions - Further Options
Potential Buyback/Extra Retention Options
Notable Releases
Punjab Kings
General Overview: They don’t really have any obvious 12+ Cr options for retention. Can see them keeping Curran in the top slot though - although his market value should be lower if impact sub rule continues.
Lots of potential additional low price retentions or buybacks - the players in the buyback category could easily be decent options as a low value retention too.
4 Retentions - Potential Structure
5/6 Retentions - Further Options
Potential Buyback/Extra Retention Options
Notable Releases
Rajasthan Royals
General Overview: Will likely want to keep a lot of the squad that has had a decent 3 year auction cycle - a team who should be pushing for a high number of retentions
4 Retentions - Potential Structure
5/6 Retentions - Further Options
Potential Buyback/Extra Retention Options
Notable Releases
Royal Challengers Bangalore
General Overview: Spectacular turnaround in 2nd half of tournament gives them some useful insight for retention.
Urgently need to focus on bowlers due to batting-heavy spending & tough home conditions to bowl in.
4 Retentions - Potential Structure
5/6 Retentions - Further Options
Potential Buyback/Extra Retention Options
Notable Releases
Sunrisers Hyderabad
General Overview: New, high-intent brand of cricket has captured the imagination of IPL fans after a number of turgid years for SRH. Showing the way to most other teams for high intent batting.
However, SRH may struggle in terms of retaining all their overseas talent.
4 Retentions - Potential Structure
5/6 Retentions - Further Options
Potential Buyback/Extra Retention Options
Notable Releases
Anyone interested in discussing how I can help their team with strategic management and data-driven analysis, or contribute to any media work, can get in touch at sportsanalyticsadvantage@gmail.com.
Good post. Coming to SRH I feel it is critical to retain their batting core in the auction. I would go with Head, Klaasen, Sharma, Reddy, Samad/Shahbaz. There is a good chance that it would not be possible to buy them at a good price back in the auction. After what happened this season I think other teams will not let SRH buy back these players that easily.
I hate leaving Cummins out but I feel the bigger reason for success in the current season are these 5-6 batters and not his captaincy.
If they retain this batting core, SRH should focus on buying better bowlers at the auction along with a good captaincy material player.