IPL Retentions - Team Analysis

Plus more in-depth thoughts about the implications of the new rules

This morning, I started planning out a potential retention strategy for each of the 10 IPL franchises, and my initial thoughts were reinforced VERY quickly.

Essentially - these retention rules are far more complex than most people realise - I actually have to tip my hat to the people at the BCCI who have designed them. Every decision has a major consequence and there are many traps set for franchises. Most people (and some teams) may think that it's a simple case of picking the players you want to keep. It is not. Every retention decision will have an impact on other retention decisions, the auction and the upcoming three years of the cycle - far more than in 2022.

The real rule-based trap and stroke of genius from the BCCI is the fourth retention slot for capped players. It requires them to pay another 18 Cr for that spot, the same as the maximum value of the first retention, and then another 14 Cr for the fifth retention, the same as the second retention price.

At the moment, I am not working with a team for the 2025 mega auction. I am also available for media work both for the auction and the tournament. If anyone would like to discuss a role, please get in touch via email at sportsanalyticsadvantage@gmail.com.

Here’s a look at how that compares to 2022, both in terms of budget equivalent (based on 120 Cr budget in 2025 compared to 90 Cr in 2022) and also the equivalent cost in actual Crore for those spots in 2022.

It is evident that retention spots 1 & 2 are, relatively speaking, much better value than in 2022 (18 Cr in 2025 is far cheaper than 16 Cr in 2022 given the difference in budgets, as is 14 Cr in 2025 compared to 12 Cr in 2022). 11 Cr for the third retention is about the same as the equivalent cost in 2022.

There’s no doubt in my mind that retention spots four and five which are absolutely brutal in terms of cost to franchises, and it will be fascinating to see how many of the teams realise this. As I wrote about yesterday, emotional investment and the sunk cost fallacy are real concepts when it comes to cricketing recruitment and I do fear for the franchises who view the maximum number of retentions as a target as opposed to a choice, similar to the pacers last year who looked at two bouncers per over as a target rather than an option.

To elaborate on that further, if teams want to retain up to six players then they can, but they will have to pay heavily for the privilege, and have their auction purse utterly decimated in the process. Up to 79 Cr (out of 120 Cr) can be deducted for five capped and one uncapped retention, leaving just 41 Cr to pick up to 19 other players (of which six will have to play in a starting XI). Put simply, if a team retains six players, they’re going to have an EXTREMELY lop-sided roster of players split between galacticos and the rest of the squad making up the numbers, and the track record for franchises with this dynamic is not particularly positive.

A further implication of the structure is that if a team has two players who both want 18 Cr, then they’ll also need to retain two additional players at 14 Cr and 11 Cr as well, costing a total of 61 Cr - over half their budget - on just four players. I keep saying it but it needs to be re-iterated - if teams want to keep their core then they have more opportunity to do so compared to in 2022, but it won’t be cheap for them to do it (or necessarily good value for money).

Basically, the BCCI have been very clever and accommodated all teams in different ways with their rules. They have given the teams who wanted to retain more players but the cost of a high number of retentions will keep a competitive league, and ensure that the mega auction remains a big event. Conversely, the teams who wanted fewer retentions can go into the auction with a dominant purse, and there will inevitably be enough high profile/marquee players in the auction who they can target.

The only teams who might feel hard done by will be those who want to keep some players but not pay 18 Cr (13.5 Cr equivalent in 2022) for the privilege. Let’s have a look at the options for each team and my view on some of the tricky decisions which they’ll have to negotiate in order to have a good retention period.

Please bear in mind that the analysis below is simply my perception of what teams might do and the decisions that they will take. It’s also worth noting that players may turn down retentions - this happened in quite a few cases ahead of the 2022 mega auction, either because they want a bigger salary or because they want a new franchise.

The notable players back into auction names for each team are vital to acknowledge as well because it will illustrate the likely scarcity of resources for each skillset at auction, which is a critical consideration for squad construction. They’ll be joined in the auction by the likes of Ben Stokes, Jofra Archer, Joe Root and Josh Hazlewood who didn’t play in 2024.

Finally, before this segment I have my own views on retentions which in some cases are markedly different. They will be published at the end of each team’s analysis. My basic methodology generally focuses on avoiding paying big money for veteran players ahead of a 3-year cycle (scope to decline significantly) and looking to wield a big stack at auction to frustrate and bully other teams, although I’m not wedded to these strategies.

Chennai Super Kings

General Overview: Dhoni becoming uncapped again for the purposes of the league is a huge boost to them - I fully expect them to retain him at the low 4 Cr cost. As I wrote about recently, he is still has excellent metrics for the finisher role so at that price, it’s a no-brainer for them.

As with some other franchises, they would have a number of players they might want around the 8-14 Cr mark but not necessarily any at 18 Cr.  It’s really difficult to work out a high expected value retention structure, especially at the high end of the salary levels. So, the new rules help them (Dhoni) but hinder them with the multiple 18 Cr retention slots.

They are likely to have emotional attachment to Ravindra Jadeja but if he is given either 11 or 14 Cr it constrains their ability to retain Dube or makes them overpay for the likes of Matheesha Pathirana. Tushar Deshpande’s recent international appearances make it very tricky for them to retain him, and CSK’s plethora of capped players (of course, they’re renowned for valuing experienced players) kind of counts against them when looking at viable uncapped player retentions.

I don’t necessarily like it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if their retentions went something like this - and keeping the option of a right to match for the auction.

Potential Retentions

They might swap in Tushar Deshpande for Matheesha Pathirana, with logical bias towards securing domestic pacers ahead of the auction as a scarce resource. I’m not even sure any of the four retentions sell for more than these prices at auction, but CSK are usually a franchise which values stability and retaining a core if possible. I am not sure they’ll find it in them to release the veteran all-rounder Jadeja who has been a mainstay of the franchise for a long time.

What would I do?

2 retentions although very difficult to answer. I don’t see many options for them to retain players below their likely market value at the auction. I’d probably look to retain Ruturaj Gaikwad at 18 Cr and MS Dhoni at 4 Cr, and go into the auction with 98 Cr, but I’m pretty sure CSK won’t do that.

Delhi Capitals

General Overview: Three high quality domestic players seem a logical starting point for retentions, giving them a very strong core. A possibility also is that they could move Axar Patel to the second 18 Cr spot, Kuldeep to 14 Cr and then squeeze in Khaleel Ahmed in at 11 Cr to maximise domestic retention options - good domestic pacers are a scarce resource.

Then, DC can round off a really nice domestic core with Abhishek Porel and Rakish Salam Dar as cheap uncapped options. These six retentions would cost them 69 Cr overall but would be able to load up on good overseas players at auction who represent good value for money.

Potential Retentions

What would I do?

6 retentions - while I’m not a huge advocate of a lot of retentions and constraining budget ahead of the auction, this is a viable possibility for DC compared to many other franchises. I’d be tempted to spend that 69 Cr as mentioned on six domestic players and take as strong a domestic core into the auction as possible with 51 Cr to spend. Tristan Stubbs, Harry Brook, Jake Fraser-McGurk and Anrich Nortje could also be buyback targets.

Gujarat Titans

General Overview: Rashid Khan and Shubman Gill look like must-retains out of what looks like quite an uninspiring roster, although convincing Gill to take 14 Cr might be a challenge. If they do need to keep Gill at 18 Cr, they’ll need to shoehorn another retention in at either 14/11 Crore (Sai Sudarshan?).

Rahul Tewatia at 4 Cr as an uncapped player looks good value although he might feel like taking his chances at auction in order to get a higher price. GT will be hoping he stays loyal to them.

Overall, though, a decent opportunity to revamp what looks like a relatively aging and mediocre squad.

Potential Retentions

What would I do?

3 retentions - I’d do my best to keep Rashid Khan and Shubman Gill, and probably Rahul Tewatia although I’m not a huge fan of the non-bowling finisher as a role (he’s rarely bowling at this level these days). This would allow GT to go into the auction with 84 Cr in order to overhaul their squad for the next cycle.

Kolkata Knight Riders

General Overview: Defending champions often see their squad broken up at mega auction and this could well be the case here for KKR, who might find it difficult to whittle down their squad to six retentions.

They have decisions to make over aging superstars Andre Russell and Sunil Narine, who has recently shown predictable mean-reversion with his batting after hugely outperforming his false shot data in IPL 2024. Rather like Ravindra Jadeja at CSK, I find it difficult to think that they will release either player, but retaining them for a three year cycle - particularly Russell - looks a bit risky.

KKR have a number of talented uncapped players but I’m not sure how they can fit them into their retention structure, and that issue is further compounded by a likely national team debut for Harshit Rana this month, which would mean he couldn’t be retained as an uncapped player.

Below is what I ‘think’ they might do but I don’t have much certainty around it.

Potential Retentions

What would I do?

It is so tough to come up with an optimal strategy. I can’t see them releasing captain Shreyas Iyer but I’d consider it if there was a decision between that and retaining Harshit Rana for 4 Cr as an uncapped player, but then that makes things complicated for Rinku Singh’s price. It’s a big call but I’d consider releasing Russell, whose bowling looks less and less effective. I’d also consider releasing Starc whose performances were mixed in IPL 2024, and a concern about his motivation to play the IPL in an Ashes year.

Something like 1) S Iyer, 2) Narine, 3) Rinku, 4 (Uncapped) Ramandeep, 5 (Uncapped) Harshit makes optimal sense to me and cost 51 Cr only, but I don’t think they get this luxury.

Lucknow Super Giants

General Overview: Like fellow expansion team GT, a rather uninspiring squad who get their first shot at retentions ahead of a mega auction. An overhaul could be a good strategy.

KL Rahul’s future at the franchise is a little in doubt, and there’s also continued debate about his suitability to an increasingly higher intent tournament. I’d be tempted to let him go, but it would be a big call for LSG to make.

Their retention structure is further complicated by Mayank Yadav’s likely cap for India this month ahead of the retention deadline, which would rule out their ability to keep him for a bargain 4 Cr as an uncapped player. Otherwise, their uncapped list with the exception of Mohsin Khan doesn’t shout out retention options to me.

LSG could also look to keep Marcus Stoinis and Krunal Pandya but would have to pay big money to do so. I think it would be a pretty bad decision for them to retain 5 capped players, costing them 75 Cr alone, constraining their ability to compete at auction and also with the scope to pick up these two players and possibly also KL Rahul, whose stock has arguably fallen this year, cheaper at auction.

Potential Retentions

What would I do?

Pooran at 18 Cr. Mayank Yadav for sure at 4 Cr if he still qualifies as an uncapped player. It would still be a risk keeping him at 11 Cr as a capped player but it’s a risk I might be keen on taking given his raw talent and scarcity of strong domestic pacers. Maybe also leg spinner Ravi Bishnoi at 14 Cr for some certainty in a constrained supply of high quality domestic spinners, but I think there’s a solid chance he’d be cheaper at auction.

Pooran (18), Bishnoi (14), Mayank (11 or 4) - release all others - looks like my initial lean. Also Mohsin Khan at 4 Cr - it is tough to get good domestic pacers at auction.

Mumbai Indians

General Overview: Where do we even start? Bumrah is utterly mandatory at top pick with SKY, despite his age, looking viable at 2nd pick. Tilak Varma at 11 Cr - 3rd pick - looks a no brainer to me, given that he has as high a ceiling as any young domestic batter.

The problem for MI is that six capped players don’t go into five capped slots, which means that they could need to decide between current captain Hardik Pandya or deposed captain Rohit Sharma, whose non-boundary strike rate is now at veteran age Chris Gayle levels. They could also pick both and lose one of Ishan Kishan or Tilak Varma, which in the case of Varma would be a huge mistake in my view.

I would have major concern that the retention structure will put MI in a very similar position to the 2022 mega auction where they refused to consider letting Ishan Kishan go and ended up overpaying for him, and also constraining their ability to recruit an above-average bowling attack. Imagine if they let him go again to retain the other five mentioned players, and then spent 15+ Cr to buy him back at auction - this would mean they’ve spent 75 Cr on capped retentions and 15+ on Kishan. They’d find it very difficult to be able to create a top bowling attack and have any semblance of squad depth with the remaining maximum of 30 Crore.

Potential Retentions

What would I do?

Bumrah at 18, SKY at 14, Tilak at 11, and probably two uncapped players. Cost 51 Cr, leaves 69 Cr to spend at auction. However, I would be amazed if even close to this happened.

Punjab Kings

General Overview: If I was still working for my former franchise, the first thing I would do is seek urgent clarification on whether Prabhsimran Singh qualifies as an uncapped player. He played for India in the Asia Cup but from what I can gather, those matches don’t count among official statistics. Getting him back for 4 Cr would be a really handy piece in the retention jigsaw for me.

PBKS main issue with their capped players is that I think there’s decent scope for them to be able to buy them back at auction for less than 14+ Cr as retentions. Livingstone at 11 Cr might be good value though, and he does currently have recency bias on his side too with some brutal hitting in his recent performances for England and during the back end of The Hundred.

Do they move on from Sam Curran, who would likely cost 18 Cr? If they do, then they’ll need to pay Arshdeep 18 Cr to retain him, which is tricky to justify as well. There are various very difficult decisions for Ricky Ponting to consider as the new head coach because to unlock the 14 Cr and 11 Cr slots, they need to overpay for an 18 Cr retention.

Below is what I ‘think’ they might try and do, but it’s far from a given. It will be fascinating to see how they line up ahead of the auction.

Potential Retentions

What would I do?

Two uncapped retentions, ideally Ashutosh Sharma and Prabhsimran Singh. I can hear the arguments now about leaving out Shashank Singh who was excellent in 2024 but a one-season player who is soon to be 33 years of age is a big risk in my view. Plus, Prabhsimran offers a keeping option too.

You can make a big case then for PBKS to take 112 Cr into the auction and buy back the likes of Arshdeep, Livingstone, Harshal Patel, Rabada, Ellis, Jitesh and Shashank potentially.

Rajasthan Royals

General Overview: Arguably the best, and best-run franchise over the last three year cycle, RR will surely be keen to keep the core of their squad together and pick as many as five capped retentions and spending 75 Cr in the process.

They’ve not been shy of early spending in recent auctions, doing so in the 2022 mega auction and needing to pick an array of cheap overseas players at the end of it, and then spending a large chunk of their 2024 auction budget on Rovman Powell, who was the first lot in this year’s auction. Could this be a sign that their management values (or overvalues) certainty? Their retentions will allow us to find out pretty soon.

With the overwhelming majority of their squad already being capped players, we are unlikely to see an uncapped retention from RR unless they choose to keep Powerplay specialist pacer Sandeep Sharma who looks eligible to be retained as an uncapped player under the ‘Dhoni Rule’. I’m not sure, however, that Sandeep would cost 4+ Cr at auction - when I was at PBKS we picked him up for 50 lakh in 2022.

Overall, though, some tricky retention decisions ahead for RR who will likely want to have had the chance to keep more of their capped talent ahead of the next cycle, and might be outbid by other teams when they try to get them back - at least they would have the ability to RTM one player by not retaining an uncapped player, which makes logical sense.

Potential Retentions

What would I do?

Call me mad, but I’d consider only retaining the top four players on this list only and then re-evaluating Buttler as an auction prospect or right to match. This would reduce pre-auction spending from 75 Cr to 61 Cr, enabling a much chunkier stack to compete at auction and giving more scope to buy back some other members of their 2024 squad.

Royal Challengers Bangalore

General Overview: Another team who may well be keen to retain their key players but have to pay the price to do so. It really is hard to see them want to lose any of their capped superstars, and therefore they are likely to go into the auction with one of the smallest budgets to spend.

They’ve been very batter-heavy with their spending over many years and their likely retentions are again along those lines, which makes it difficult for them to assemble an above-average bowling group for the next cycle, needing to do so primarily at auction. This is why I think it would be a mistake for them to retain Rajat Patidar as well, which many think they will do - it will just make it impossible for them to be a bowling-strong team.

They urgently need to recruit a top-level spinner, and some strong pace-bowling options to go with Mohammed Siraj and the all-round option from Cameron Green. Perhaps they’ll be tempted to retain Yash Dayal or Vijaykumar Vyshak as an uncapped player.

Potential Retentions

What would I do?

I might look to move on from Maxwell, who is almost 36 years of age and reinvest that into the bowling. This would save 14 Crore, with Will Jacks moving into his 11 Cr role. I’m not sold on Green at 18 Cr either - I might just focus on the top three slots for capped players (43 Cr spent) and maybe one or two uncapped players - one of the two pacers makes sense.

Sunrisers Hyderabad

General Overview: SRH will be delighted with the rules allowing them to keep as many overseas players as they want - this surely would have been a big concern to them. The price brackets also will potentially be to their liking as well - they’ve probably been suited to the new rules as much as any team.

If they have concerns, they’ll probably focus on Pat Cummins ahead of an Ashes series, and that their retentions are likely to be more batting-focused. If they want to keep the likes of Bhuvneshwar Kumar or T Natarajan, it will really reduce their ability to compete for any ‘must-haves’ at auction.

Also, if Nitish Kumar Reddy is capped by India this month, as seems likely, he will be unable to be retained as a cheaper 4 Cr option for the franchise.

So, while SRH will be happy that they can keep their core squad together, there are still several elements of doubt for them ahead of the auction.

Potential Retentions

What would I do?

Probably broadly along the above lines. I might also look to buy a number of 2024 squad players back in the auction, and have scope to use the RTM option as well.

At the moment, I am not working with a team for the 2025 mega auction. I am also available for media work both for the auction and the tournament. If anyone would like to discuss a role, please get in touch via email at sportsanalyticsadvantage@gmail.com.