Great column Dan. I think we've all been spending some time thinking about whether the IPL system can be exploited in light of the retention madness. Your idea is a great one that I hadn't thought of, though I think the Hardik move probably benefited from a cric-political and financial perfect storm.
To the point you're making in the article, the most *valuable* players end up being the guys on peanut contracts. That said, if you knew which guys who go for peanuts at auction are going to make an impact, you'd have a scouting advantage that wouldn't necessitate some sort of exploitative roster construction strategy. But I still wonder if there's something to be exploited there. Do you think a mega auction strategy that's more polarized - i.e. spending double digit crore on a few stalwarts, and filling the rest of the team out with lottery tickets - could be superior? The fact that mega auction player values and mini auction player values are so different screams market inefficiency... Just haven't quite figured out how to game it.
You're right about the scouting advantage, but you can never be 100% sure (or even close to 100%) about a piece of recruitment. Most football teams would kill for a 50% success rate with their recruitment, and those costs runs into the 10s of millions.
Re: the galactico approach by recruiting some marquee players and then having a squad full of cheap options, it's something that a few IPL teams have done already. RCB over the years spring to mind. MI post 2022 mega-auction potentially also.
In my view, the key is to stack the 'lottery tickets' in your favour. Young players with a high ceiling makes sense. Not just picking players who are going to take up a seat on the bus.
The player trading market in most leagues is absurdly inefficient. Interestingly, the most efficient I've experienced has been The Hundred.
Great column Dan. I think we've all been spending some time thinking about whether the IPL system can be exploited in light of the retention madness. Your idea is a great one that I hadn't thought of, though I think the Hardik move probably benefited from a cric-political and financial perfect storm.
To the point you're making in the article, the most *valuable* players end up being the guys on peanut contracts. That said, if you knew which guys who go for peanuts at auction are going to make an impact, you'd have a scouting advantage that wouldn't necessitate some sort of exploitative roster construction strategy. But I still wonder if there's something to be exploited there. Do you think a mega auction strategy that's more polarized - i.e. spending double digit crore on a few stalwarts, and filling the rest of the team out with lottery tickets - could be superior? The fact that mega auction player values and mini auction player values are so different screams market inefficiency... Just haven't quite figured out how to game it.
Thanks Ben - agree on your points.
You're right about the scouting advantage, but you can never be 100% sure (or even close to 100%) about a piece of recruitment. Most football teams would kill for a 50% success rate with their recruitment, and those costs runs into the 10s of millions.
Re: the galactico approach by recruiting some marquee players and then having a squad full of cheap options, it's something that a few IPL teams have done already. RCB over the years spring to mind. MI post 2022 mega-auction potentially also.
In my view, the key is to stack the 'lottery tickets' in your favour. Young players with a high ceiling makes sense. Not just picking players who are going to take up a seat on the bus.
The player trading market in most leagues is absurdly inefficient. Interestingly, the most efficient I've experienced has been The Hundred.