What are the issues with Royal Challengers Bengaluru?

Recruitment under scrutiny after one win in five matches...

With just one win and four defeats in their opening five matches, Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) currently stand second-bottom of the IPL table. Only net run rate sees them above Delhi Capitals, who look destined for a tough season.

One of the biggest brands in the IPL, and full of big name players, such poor results will be a surprise to many observers. Following the mini auction, I was sceptical of their chances in the tournament, although new coach Andy Flower was a clearly positive hire given his record in T20 cricket in recent years - he’s pretty much a qualification machine.

It is not an understatement to suggest that their match on Thursday against Mumbai Indians in Mumbai is a virtual knockout for both teams, given their relatively poor net run rate. An RCB loss will put them at 1-5, and potentially mean that they would need to go 8-0 in their remaining group matches unless they can seriously address that NRR issue - even then they’d need to go 7-1.

Having set the scene, I want to move on to why RCB find themselves in this position.

Setting up as a batting-strong team

The current RCB roster has them spending 56 Cr on five batters or batting all-rounders: Virat Kohli, Faf du Plessis, Glenn Maxwell, Cameron Green, Dinesh Karthik. There will be more discussion about these players later on.

This type of top-heavy roster construction has been a hallmark of RCB over the years. They’ve long been what analysts call a ‘batting-strong team’, which is a dynamic not particularly correlated towards qualifying in the IPL. If you’re going to be one or the other, it’s better to be a bowling-strong team based on historical evidence.

The IPL started in 2008, yet RCB have continually chosen (via their recruitment) to have a top-heavy, batting-strong roster. They either haven’t worked out that this doesn’t work in T20 cricket, or are more focused on the commercials which the likes of Kohli generate.

If it is the first reason - not understanding the drivers of success in T20 cricket - this is pretty much unforgivable - particularly given their high profile appointments of several Directors of Cricket. As mentioned on Twitter last week, I actually reached out to a former head coach several times a few years ago and created a detailed report on their squad, gap analysis and future recruitment, yet didn’t even receive an email reply after sending this report.

If RCB’s roster construction is commercially driven, that’s their prerogative, although it doesn’t exempt them from criticism when on-pitch performances aren’t good.

Bowling implications of the batting recruitment

Similar to Mumbai Indians’ purchase of Ishan Kishan at the mega auction in 2022, a team spending a high proportion of their budget on batters obviously has a negative knock-on effect towards bowling recruitment - you simply can’t purchase a strong bowling attack in a level-budget league if you spend a high proportion of your purse on batters.

For example, RCB have spent just 2.7 Cr on spin bowlers (not batters like Jacks or Maxwell who bowl spin). Yes, they’ve spent over 20 times more on 5 batters than they did on 4 spinners.

Not only this, but the money spent and the selection of Du Plessis, Maxwell and Green mean there’s only been one spot in the team left for the 5 other overseas players. Unless RCB are willing to sacrifice one of these - and current evidence suggests they are not - then they are unable to play two overseas bowling options. For example, they cannot play Reece Topley and Alzarri Joseph in the same team. The further implications of this will be shown further in the next section.

Evolution of player pool creating scarcity of domestic bowling resources

When I worked on the mega auction in 2022 with Punjab Kings, one thing that was apparent to me was that there was a lack of domestic batting talent in the auction pool. Considering there was to be an expansion to 10 teams as well, it was clear good domestic bowlers would also become an increasingly scarce resource.

It was obvious that there were some good young batters coming through the domestic system with higher ability and/or intent than many of their more sedate predecessors. Players such as Prabhsimran Singh, Abhishek Sharma and Tilak Varma to name just three. I have long had high hopes for Riyan Parag also, but he was struggling to make the breakthrough until this year.

However, the sheer speed of this evolution has even taken me by surprise. There are now so many talented and high intent domestic batters at teams and the impact sub rule (not in force in the 2022 season after the mega auction) has also accelerated this process.

Conversely, the domestic bowler pool has been thinned with the expansion to ten teams. There aren’t enough above-average spinners to go round 10 teams, while high quality pacers are now also tough to source. Rajasthan Royals have obviously taken note of this, having stockpiled domestic pacers to some extent - even if they’re not playing for them, they can’t play for someone else.

So, if there’s a load of good, high-intent domestic batters coming through and a lack of domestic bowlers, it’s logical to consider that overseas batters are becoming less necessary and overseas bowlers are now more of a priority. RCB, with their seemingly cemented 3 high profile overseas batters strategy, have in my view been left behind by this evolution of the player pool.

Potential decline of their top batters

Du Plessis turns 40 this year, while Kohli and Maxwell turn 36 in the autumn. If decline hasn’t started for these players, there’s certainly scope for it to start pretty soon. Already there are considerable voices for Du Plessis to be replaced by Will Jacks - more on this shortly.

If there is to be a mega auction before the 2025 IPL season, RCB will need to make some tough calls with these big-name batters. Retaining all of these on big money would leave them having spent big money on three batters (two overseas) with future decline likely, and who are taking up a decent chunk of their auction budget and again leaving them to play catch-up with their bowling.

The waste of Will Jacks

RCB don’t have many players around peak age, with a dynamic focused on veterans and younger players. Getting towards peak age, though, is Will Jacks, who they should be considering building their team around.

There are few opening batters more destructive than Jacks, who also offers serviceable match-up off spin.

However, to fit Jacks in, they’ll need to drop one of their high-priced, big-name overseas batters. They haven’t had the inclination to do so yet. I just hope Jacks’ RCB career doesn’t follow that of another prodigiously talented high intent overseas opener, Finn Allen. The New Zealander never made an appearance for the franchise, consistently warming the bench despite being easily good enough for a starting XI spot in the league.

Cameron Green trade - one of the worst pieces of recruitment in the history of the IPL

When Mumbai Indians wanted to take Hardik Pandya from Gujarat Titans, they couldn’t get the trade confirmed prior to the retention deadline. They needed to free up budget first or their purse at the upcoming auction would be virtually nothing.

Therefore, they needed a team to take a player with a big salary off their hands to facilitate bringing in Pandya. In theory, no team should have accepted any offer to take Green from Mumbai, because by doing so, you gift them the opportunity to upgrade their squad with a more experienced all-rounder, but crucially, from the domestic market.

Step forward RCB, who appeared delighted with the opportunity to bring in Green and therefore helping one of the most successful franchises in the history of the IPL. It made no sense, particularly when you consider that RCB really needed domestic bowlers, not an overseas batting all-rounder.

Again, this constrained their ability to bring in bowlers via trade or auction, and crucially, via the domestic market.

Even if Green turns out to be an elite T20 cricketer, the trade still makes little sense. RCB have picked up an overseas batting all-rounder when the squad was in huge need of bowling reinforcements.

No proven frontline spinner in 2024

RCB have gone from Chahal and Hasaranga, two masters of their craft, to an array of unproven spinners who they’ve spent very little money on. When you look at the spin quality of RR, KKR and even DC when Kuldeep Yadav is fit, and compare it to RCB, there’s a huge difference.

Glenn Maxwell can be an effective match-up option against left-hander heavy teams, but isn’t a regular four-over spin option at this level, while Mayank Dagar still is finding his way at IPL level too.

RCB also seem to be a little focused on doing things differently, looking at AI as a solution to finding untapped talent. Himanshu Sharma was apparently recruited by this method - they should have just called GT and asked what it would take to bring in Sai Kishore instead.

Further, if their AI is so good, it would be fascinating to see if it agrees with their teams selected and strategy decisions. I can’t believe any AI model would consider Will Jacks to be unable to make the RCB team currently.

Huge differential between biggest earners and lowest earners

The IPL salary model often creates large discrepancies in pay for players. If a team is astute enough to find a bargain player for 20 lakh, that’s all that comes out of their purse each year until the mega auction comes back around.

So, how would you feel right now if you were Mahipal Lomror (95 lakh) or Rajit Patidar (20 lakh)? Would it irritate you that some of your team mates were getting paid many multiples of your salary? How would you feel that Anuj Rawat (3.4 Cr) got paid much more too?

Salary equality is impossible in the auction environment, and RCB aren’t necessarily unique for these differentials. However, among, say, a 15 man squad, there shouldn’t be players in the same team being paid almost 90 times as much as another. There’s a danger of creating a team of individuals, and not a team.

The Rawat v Lomror v Bhandage selection decisions

RCB paying 3.4 Cr for Anuj Rawat in the 2022 mega auction was, in my view, one of the stranger auction purchases that year.

I ended up wondering if they had seen something in the keeper/batter that I hadn’t, and RCB have spent 23 matches giving Rawat as many opportunities as possible. Despite one or two cameos, the decision hasn’t worked out for them - averaging a shade more than 18 and striking at just over 115.

This isn’t wildly different to his strike rate in the Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy, so it’s unreasonable to think that Rawat was going to be dramatically better than those lower level domestic numbers.

Starting the current season, Rawat had the gloves ahead of Dinesh Karthik, which again makes little sense. What picking Rawat has also done is stifle the opportunities for Mahipal Lomror, another left-hander of the same age who looks to have far more upside, and also Manoj Bhandage, who doesn't even seem close to selection right now despite being clearly able to hit, and possibly chip in with the ball when required as well.

Only RCB can answer why they have shown so much faith in Rawat. Have they doubled down in order to try and make their decision look correct? I’d like to see this question posed to their decision-makers.

The Chinnaswamy

RCB’s home venue, the Chinnaswamy, has a warranted reputation for being a batters paradise. High scoring with short boundaries, it should suit a batting group who are packed full of high intent batters looking to target those boundaries.

Unfortunately for the franchise, RCB haven’t really recruited to this dynamic. They’ve picked more stability-oriented players such as Kohli and Du Plessis, while the likes of Rawat, as described above, is also fairly strike rate/boundary hitting constrained. Having a number of these types of players in their team at their home venue makes little sense

The smart franchises around the world in T20 cricket have been able to recruit based on the dynamics of their home venue, knowing that if they can be strong at home and pick up some wins away too, then qualification will be a very realistic target. Look at CSK at The Chepauk, winning in excess of 70% of their matches at home - they know what type of player is likely to succeed at their home venue.

An Overseas Captain

Choosing to make an overseas player captain in the IPL is fraught with difficulty. There are very few overseas players in the tournament that teams can say will play every match (if fit) with 100% certainty.

Any drop of form from an overseas captain is extremely problematic for a team. An overseas player is such a valuable resource that it’s vital that all contribute with their skillset.

Faf turns 40 years of age in July. If a decline hasn’t come already, it’s likely to come very soon. Picking a player with that dynamic is highly risky.

Despite some early struggles this year, he’s a quality player who could still have a good season but being unable to drop an out of form overseas player because they are captain isn’t ideal. It also has a knock-on effect on Will Jacks not playing as well.

In-play strategy & bowling plans

I’m unsure that the RCB bowlers have either bowled to plans this season, or have had decent plans to start with.

One example was Alzarri Joseph against KKR. Having batted first, RCB should have been able to look at the data from their batting innings to see what worked and didn’t work for the KKR bowlers.

It was clear that pace off and a good length was what worked for KKR’s pacers in that innings, yet Joseph consistently looked to bowl pace on and back of a length or short. Who is giving him those plans? Does he even get help from the coaches in this area?

Alzarri Joseph is a highly talented fast bowler with a lot of tools which could make him an asset for any team. However, he also looks like a bowler who really needs structured plans in order to maximise his value, and I’m far from convinced that there’s a connect between him and their bowling plans right now.

Moving forward - this season

Having gone 1-4 and a net run rate worse than -0.8 in their first five matches this year, RCB are pretty much in last chance saloon already this season. Even before the halfway stage of this year’s IPL, their match against fellow strugglers MI on Thursday looks must-win for both teams.

They cannot afford any more selection mistakes. They must play Will Jacks, by hook or by crook. It’s no good them picking him once they are virtually eliminated. Realistically, it looks like either Du Plessis or Cameron Green must be sacrificed for the English opener.

Given their bowling issues, it might also be worth trying Reece Topley and Alzarri Joseph in the same team. Vijaykumar Vyshak, who was so impressive in those conditions against KKR earlier in the season, deserves more opportunities as well.

There are some mistakes and team dynamics that can’t be repaired this year. They can’t change their opening duo’s stability-oriented approach. They can’t change the fact that decision-makers at the franchise think that they don’t need a proven frontline spinner. Any more defeats and qualification becomes a very unlikely occurrence and in that case, they probably should be looking towards planning for next season and beyond.

Moving forward - next year’s mega auction

In franchise T20, and the IPL is no different, it’s never easy to know whether head coaches have the same level of influence into the decision-making process. Andy Flower, in his first year at the franchise this year, has an immense record as a T20 coach, and should be trusted to make the changes necessary ahead of and during next season’s mega auction. Continued recruitment mistakes really shouldn’t be happening, 16 years after the IPL started.

The IPL haven’t confirmed the retention structure for teams ahead of the mega auction yet but if they are the same as in 2022, RCB will be allowed to retain four players.

They simply must have a strong domestic core, and of course, what I would do and what they are likely to do are two different things. I understand that moving on from Kohli will not be easy but it needs to happen at some stage - if not this cycle, can they at least convince him to reduce his salary in order to strengthen other areas of their squad?

It would be a real shame if arguably the greatest player in the history of the IPL was unable to win the tournament in his career, and such an approach would help with their recruitment flexibility.

2024 domestic retentions:-

Virat Kohli - ideally on a lower salary

Mohammad Siraj - yes he’s inconsistent, but domestic bowlers of international level are a scarce resource

2024 overseas retentions:-

This is tricky. You can make a case for retaining zero overseas players and let market dynamics work themselves out, but I have decided to highlight Will Jacks if he agrees the lowest retention salary. There’s potential for RCB to build their next generation around him.

If Glenn Maxwell can show his batting isn’t in decline, there’s an argument for keeping him as well. His role is very volatile and he has gone through many lean periods in the IPL in the past, despite being a world class hitter. They’ve got the rest of the season to make up their mind on Maxwell.

This gives RCB a base to work with moving forward, with one domestic batter and one domestic bowler retained, and one or two overseas batters. High quality pace bowlers who fit into specific phase roles, plus a world class spinner, need to be an absolute non-negotiable for their recruitment team moving forward.

There are enough domestic batters these days to make their batting recruitment at auction less of a priority. Until RCB change their priorities to being a bowling-strong team, I don’t envisage success for them.