Valuing IPL Bowlers
Continuing the process towards full player valuations...
Earlier this week I wrote about using learned historical data to value IPL batters and creating a Table of Justice for the 2025 IPL based on how teams have performed this season based on underlying metrics, compared to successful teams of the past.
Similar to the batter analysis, I want to now look at valuing IPL bowlers performance from the 2024 season onwards. I’ve been asked a lot about how I’ve done this, but unfortunately, I can’t write in detail about how this was created - obviously it’s my own intellectual property and will have huge commercial value when completed.
However, I will say, as an example, that if a player is highly valued by this model, it’s because their current performances align well with the performances of successful players in the past, and the drivers of success for successful teams.
Moving on, here is an assessment of current IPL bowlers who faced 200+ balls from the start of the 2024 season onwards - if a player isn’t in this list, it’s because they didn’t face this sample size of balls in the assessed time period.
Some points in advance:-
The average IPL bowler across all facets of a match will be valued at 100. However, in reality, a rating of 100 is very good because batters have different strengths and weaknesses, and are generally not as strong in some areas as others
There will be examples of a player being lower rated here but able to contribute better than the average player in a certain role. For example, a Powerplay specialist is unlikely to be as highly rated as an all-phase bowler because their role is generally constrained to one phase of their team’s innings, and they may have less match involvement. Players who have a very specific role will be addressed further when I value players financially and allocate them roles in depth charts.
Pacers:-
Quite predictably, Jasprit Bumrah is the outstanding pacer by some distance. That will likely come as no surprise to anyone reading this - he has shown his world-class status across formats for many years.
Mohammed Siraj, boosted by some good performances for GT this year after leaving RCB, ranks second - did RCB make a big mistake letting him go? Matheesha Pathirana was the first overseas pacer, with his value being strongly driven by a major impact as a death over specialist.
Spinners:-
Based on my model’s outputs, the top three spinners were all domestic players - Kuldeep Yadav and Varun Chakravarthy leading the way, with Sai Kishore in third position. Sai Kishore’s high value here re-iterates my well documented points of view on how good the left-arm spinner is, despite his struggle for game time until this season. Sitting on the bench for years was an absolute tragedy for a player this talented.
Sunil Narine leads a group of overseas spinners in positions 4-7 in the chart. Some may be surprised at Narine’s rating being below the top three, but his defensive style - driving great economy but not outstanding wicket-taking - did slightly constrain his output from the model.
Rashid Khan’s recent drop in form over the last year or so was illustrated by his midrange ranking, ahead of a further group of domestic spinners - mostly finger spinners who as with Narine, didn’t show prolific wicket-taking tendencies over the sample.
Coming soon will be a full player valuation model for the IPL. This will be able to financially value any professional cricketer (taking in performances in numerous T20 leagues, weighted for opposition difficulty and conditions) for any league in the world, also factoring in the budgets teams have in each league.
For example - if you want to know the fair market price for Jasprit Bumrah (simply based on playing performance, not marketing or other factors) for the IPL, this model will give an exact Crore price to several decimal points. It could, in theory, even work out a value for Jasprit Bumrah (or any other player) if he was available to play in overseas T20 leagues such as The Hundred, the Big Bash or SA20, and take into account the different salary structure in those tournaments.
To register early interest for this, or to discuss further, please email sportsanalyticsadvantage@gmail.com.