Short Notice Mailbag

Your questions answered...

I put a post out on X/Twitter a few hours ago asking for questions for an impromptu mailbag, and got an avalanche of replies! It’s going to be tough to answer them all but I want to make everyone aware that I really do value everyone’s contributions.

Also, a great question from Matt Nichols (see below) is along the lines of what I was planning to write about for a longer piece - county cricket - and I’ll address that in an upcoming post.

So, onto the questions for this mailbag. As so many people asked questions about the IPL auction, I deliberately waited until the teams announced their retentions ahead of the mega auction.

IPL Auction Questions:

AkashSaurabh15: Can rcb retain maxwell and green, and should virat back as rcb captain?

Personally I agree with RCB’s decision. I wouldn't have been hugely keen on retaining either of the two Australian players, for very different reasons. Firstly, Maxwell represents a risky proposition ahead of a three-year cycle (he is now 36 years old) with there being a possibility of decline, while Green could be injured for a while and arguably was overpriced anyway when RCB bought him. At this level, I’d still have reservations about his bowling.

I’m not necessarily saying this because I think he’s a tactical genius but if I was at RCB I would strongly try to get Virat to captain again. Having an Indian captain makes so much sense when constructing an IPL squad (there are very few overseas players who are guaranteed to start every game, let alone overseas players with leadership qualities) and having Virat revert back to captain means they can move on from the veteran Faf du Plessis in this role, who has done a good job for RCB but can’t seriously be considered as a long-term option at a high price point at his age ahead of a new auction cycle.

CricketOnScreen: Which league you think could be a great feeder league to the IPL? Like how Ligue 1 provides great talents suited to PL football.

The Hundred is probably the highest standard league overseas right now. You could make a case for the SA20 as well but I do think the depth of domestic talent in England is still a fair bit ahead of South Africa.

Relating to this, IPL teams really need to understand the differences in standard and dynamics in each overseas league and how this translates to expected performance levels in the IPL. I’ve built a model which does this, and although I’ve had talks with several teams without a conclusion, in my view the IPL teams are missing a trick by not investing in it.

Guarav98Yadav: What do you think regarding strategy of inflating bids for others - considering it might backfire and you end up with a player you don't want?

I think this happens far less than most people watching the auction actually think. I also think it’s a very risky strategy, for obvious reasons - you could end up with a player you don’t want.

However, we might see this strategy more for premium players. With the RTM returning in the upcoming auction, particularly so. I’m talking about players such as Rashid Khan, where a team who tries to bump the price up for others still ends up with arguably the best player for his role in the entire tournament, so it can’t be a disaster. Doing for a player who’d otherwise go unsold is more of a disaster.

If teams want to do this, I’d be keen to profile specific teams who in the past have shown difficulty getting away from bidding on a player that they really want, with an emotional connection to that player. Mumbai Indians could be a good target there.

MaduraUchiha439: If Rajat Patidar goes into mega auction what will his price range be according to supply and demand, who is worth more him or Dube?

Both got retained in the end, but if I was forced to bid on one of the two players, I’d be keener on paying more for Dube. He has a strong, relatively unique skillset (playing spin) and is left-handed which is a valuable commodity also. Both players are of a similar age but Dube has had more game time at IPL level.

BlakePa09080738: Your thoughts on international players having to sign up for mega auction in order to be available for a cycle?

I like it, but it’s still a system which is easy to be gamed, simply because the player’s international board can verify an injury to alleviate the pressure of registering for a mega auction, as opposed to, for example, an independent physician paid for by the BCCI.

In my view, overseas players haven’t always respected T20 leagues around the world. I’ve been strong on the fact that if a player wants to play in a league, it should be a pre-requisite for them to confirm their availability for the entire tournament.

Also, players should be unable to play in another league until their original league is finished (e.g. if a SA20 player gets knocked out of that tournament they cannot play in the ILT20 until the SA20 has finished).

J1rayathesannin: Apart from MSD, which other veteran will be retained as an uncapped player in this auction?

I was surprised that Dhoni wasn’t the only player retained as an uncapped player under the ‘Dhoni rule’. I don’t really understand why RR kept Sandeep Sharma on for 4 Cr under this rule too - I’d be surprised if his market value was close to that figure (we picked him up for 50 lakh in 2022 when I was at PBKS).

@broski786: 1) Wouldn’t it be better if the auction was in late December (smat will end) instead of the rumoured late Nov date

2) hard to say but which team could dominate the post auction cycle if they get this yrs auction right

3) which player could be in high demand this time round

4) which underrated player could be like heinrech klassen as in i remember you saying at that time u were surprised that he was even picked but has dominated ipl/world cricket for the last 2 yrs

1. Yes, completely agree, or January. 2022 Mega Auction was in February. It makes no sense for the auction to be held before the end of the Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy.

2. This is all hypothetical, but I’ll pick two teams. Firstly, PBKS because they can dominate the auction if they are smart with a much bigger purse than any other team. Secondly, SRH because their retentions are so strong.

3. Domestic players will have a huge premium, if teams are smart. I can’t see many players being sold for more than Rishabh Pant.

4. Klaassen was one that I got wrong, and I’ll happily hold my hands up there. This time around I’ll go with Ben Duckett as a player who could really make an impact at IPL level. He’s been absolutely outstanding this year and has a really great skillset as a left-hander who is a great player of spin, and offers a back-up keeping option too.

AkashSil17: Which Indian players (that are currently playing) likely to be disappointed by their value in the auction?

Domestic players will usually be a more valuable commodity at auction. Spinners should be in high demand because there aren’t at least 10 high quality spinners to go around the 10 teams.

Batters might find it trickier this time, if teams are smart. I think Shreyas Iyer probably would get a decent bid although I wouldn’t probably be as keen on him as other teams would be. KL Rahul might be disappointed, because his views on his batting approach are now so renowned. He might regret his comments come auction day.

Suhaswaghtweets: According to you, Which type/role overseas players will get the highest bid in the auction (e.g. Pace bowling all-rounder/Spin bowling all-rounder/Top order bat)?

Also ka_kaushik: Will the Impact Player affect the salaries of allrounders especially spinning allrounders when compared to 2022 mega auction?

All-rounders will always go for plenty at auction, because supply of high quality all-rounders (genuine all rounders, not bits and pieces players) is so scarce. Regardless of whether there is an impact sub rule or not.

Genuine all-rounders such as Sunil Narine or Sam Curran still had a greater level of match involvement (average balls batted + balls bowled) than one-skilled players (batters or bowlers) so the high value of these type of players will always exist.

a_lot_of_lions: Question on behalf of TheCricketPod patreon discord member Dave - which players in the auction pool do you see as viable captains?

Not many! I talk a lot about scarce resources and good captains are definitely that as well. I’m on record saying that no more than 10% of captains add value over the average captain and this means that some of the 10 teams won’t be able to have a high quality, proven captain.

Someone will probably take a punt on Faf, which is a risk due to his age, Maybe a team will try Buttler, Stokes or Sam Curran, but as mentioned I’d not be enthused about an overseas captain, particularly from England whose players may not be fully available for seasons.

Domestic players make sense - Rishabh Pant and Shreyas Iyer will be in demand, maybe a team will look at KL Rahul in that leadership role but I’d be less keen.

R Ashwin could be a good shout at a price which represents some decent value - I love the way he thinks about cricket.

cricjoy24: How much auction or retention or data driven and how data is used?

Some teams will use it more than others, but I think a general summary would be that the number of teams taking a very data-driven approach is probably less than most people think. Owners (and their emotion) are far too prevalent in the decision making, which in my view is far from best practice.

You wouldn’t see it in the Premier League in football (apart from one or two teams), and in business, owners tend to delegate the decisions to experts.

Cricket teams have a lot to learn in that respect.

Pranavsathian: What's the best strategy for a team like Punjab Kings who is going into the auction with such a huge purse after only retaining Shashank and Prabhsimran? How do they build their core in terms of team composition?

An ultra-strong domestic core is critical. In my view, they have a great opportunity to bully other teams at auction and also force up the price of some players who, if they ended up winning them anyway, would still be good signings.

The auction sets will determine a lot. If they can still build an ultra-strong domestic core without spending much in the first couple of sets, they’ll be able to play that ‘big-stack bully’ role with great success.

nbnikscool: How much Arshdeep will fetch if he will come into the auction?

Domestic, proven bowlers (and proven death pacers) are an extremely scarce resource. I’d be very surprised if PBKS don’t try and buy him back or RTM, but they might be pretty disappointed by how much they have to pay. I’m expecting 14+ Crore.

England Cricket Questions:

JaayShaan: Will England play BazBall in #NZvENG Test Series? Liam Dawson was in excellent form with the Bat and Ball in #CountyChamp 2024. I didn't see him in England Test Squad for both Pakistan and NZ Test Series. Any specific reason?

England will almost inevitably double-down on ‘Bazball’ against New Zealand. I’ve said for a while that opposition teams should be preparing spinning pitches against them and finally this is happening, which clearly negates England’s approach and reduces their expected win percentage chances ahead of each match.

Spinning pitches aren’t particularly noted in New Zealand but what they could do is look to produce green-tops and let the likes of Matt Henry and Tim Southee wreak havoc. England will probably pick a battering ram pace attack and won’t have the bowlers to take advantage of those conditions as well as New Zealand are likely to.

Liam Dawson appears to have been ignored by those in charge of selection. There was some speculation suggesting he didn’t want to give up a contract in SA20 last year to play for England but media reports from good sources suggest that he wasn’t asked to do so. It’s strange really, because he’s been excellent with bat and ball in Division One consistently in recent years in red-ball cricket.

PichaLiteBro: How can england test team tackle spin in asian conditions?

I’m not sure if they actually can. It’s going to be a real problem for them moving forward.

BlakePa09080738: For all this talk about empowering players and giving them a long run, Bazball seems to go through players quickly. Leach was moved on for Bashir, before he was brought back, Potts wasn't in favour for the Ashes, co Tongue was the hip new thing. How will this hypocrisy affect players?

It’s probably not a shock to readers to hear that I don’t particularly think much of England’s selection processes or their current team/squad decisions.

Some players seem untouchable while others are more dispensable, almost regardless of their performances. I don’t see a lot of evidence-based decision making, more just hunches. Have they underperformed (results wise) in Test Cricket in recent years? Largely, they’ve probably beaten who they’d be expected to and lost to teams they’d be expected to lose to (plus Pakistan recently).

Having worked with many players, I know that they usually respond very well to being backing by team management. You can imagine that a player like Bashir who hasn’t necessarily earned a place in the team through performances will feel 10 feet tall with this backing. Those who are in and out of the team, probably not so much.

Bastie35: What do you think of the Kookaburra ball rounds in County Cricket? And as a follow up, have you learnt anything about any players that you couldn’t/ didn’t from the Duke’s ball games?

I’m not a fan of the Kookaburra ball in the Championship, in particular the two rounds early on in the season which produced very attritional cricket which was about as exciting as watching paint dry. I think that’s a view that would have a lot of support among players and coaches as well.

And in any case, it appears England didn’t even use the information from those matches - Brydon Carse struggled with the Kookaburra ball in the Championship and Sam Cook took a 10-for early in the season when bowlers really struggled, but England still picked Carse anyway.

When you see things like this, I’m not really sure what the point of the Kookaburra round was.

Hundred Bidding Questions:

PJ211705: Whom u expect london sprit stake will be bought [by]? MI or LSG?

I don’t know which ownership group the MCC will choose to sell any stake to, or even if they will sell a majority shareholding. Being based at Lord’s and having the word ‘London’ in their name will automatically create a high sale price - probably the highest - and I think we can expect a pretty competitive battle between those two teams for the franchise, based on media reports.

On a side note I have gone on record saying that I think franchises in The Hundred are undervalued and I don’t pay any attention to comments from Lalit Modi in this regard. Businesses (and sports teams are businesses) are only worth what people pay and in any auction environment - whether it is sports teams, players or antiques - if two bidders want the same item really badly, the price always rockets upwards.

AbdullahSid892: The hundred is going to privatize. Do you expect they will act independently or will probably become feeder Franchise for IPL investors?

It’s really difficult to say at this stage. The franchise landscape is evolving quickly and what it looks like now is probably not going to be what it looks like in a few years time.

Also, I’d be highly surprised if all eight Hundred franchises are sold to IPL owners.

At the moment, I am not working with a team for the 2025 mega auction. I am also available for media work both for the auction and the tournament. If anyone would like to discuss a role, please get in touch via email at sportsanalyticsadvantage@gmail.com.