PSL 2023 Squad Analysis

Who were the winners and losers from last Wednesday's draft?

The PSL draft took place last Wednesday, and the theme for me was how some teams looked to have improved their talent ID albeit to a slight extent. It was pleasing to see young talents such as Gurbaz, Farooqi and Little get decent recognition, while some of the declining veterans were not in demand.

This, of course, seems logical, but drafts around the world rarely can be described as logical. Generally this is due to significant owner involvement, and a number of ‘hangers-on’ who generate something of a ‘too many cooks spoil the broth’ dynamic, leading to teams making very weird - sometimes unexplainable - recruitment decisions. There really isn’t any need to have more than three or four people present - the General Manager, Head Coach, Analyst & perhaps the captain.

I’ve worked a lot with my own data on the PSL, although have not yet worked in the league. The closest I came was a couple of years back when the head of a team whose name is slightly reminiscent of a dried fruit got me to apply for a visa (not an easy process!) and then ghosted me subsequently.

While I haven’t built an expected run production/prevention model for the PSL (it takes too long if I’m not working in the league), I have spent a lot of time looking at league dynamics, and a few are particularly prevalent:-

• Domestic hitters are in scarce supply

• Domestic pacers are pretty decent

• Not a lot of right-arm off-spin is bowled in the league (just over 20% last season) - shown by the data below from PSL 2022 - so recruitment of left-handed batters makes sense to cause greater match-up issues for right-arm wrist-spinners and left-arm orthodox spinners, which comprised almost 75% of spin balls bowled last season. In fact, Mujeeb is the only player across any of the squads whose bowling is classified as right-arm off-spin and isn’t an all-rounder.

So, moving back to domestic hitters being a scarce resource - see below. Here is a chart of the major batters in the tournament, illustrating their balls per dismissal and boundary percentage in main T20 leagues and T20 internationals from the start of 2021 to 15th December, 2022:-

Of the top boundary hitters, of domestic players, only Mohammad Haris and Sharjeel Khan can legitimately lay claim to being a top 10 hitter - Ahsan Ali’s fairly small sample of matches last year means his numbers are pretty volatile right now, while Hasan Ali’s status as a lower-order hitter is shown by him having a low balls per dismissal count.

Pakistan appear to have a specialty in producing anchor batters, with Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan the notable duo in this respect. Sarfaraz Ahmed falling into this bracket is far from ideal given his role batting down the order, and his price point looks very overpriced, in my view.

Compare the domestic batting weakness in the player pool to the strengths of the domestic pace bowlers - here’s a chart showing the same metrics across the same sample period, but for bowlers:-

There are five domestic players close to the ideal bottom-left corner, and to illustrate Pakistan’s pace bowling strength in depth, the likes of Faheem Ashraf, Haris Rauf and Hasan Ali weren’t far off named inclusion either with pretty strong boundary concession numbers.

Moving on, it’s now time for some team analysis (alphabetical order):-

Islamabad United

Potential starting XI

Alex Hales (os), Paul Stirling (os), Moeen Ali (os), Azam Khan (wk), Shadab Khan, Asif Ali, Faheem Ashraf, Hasan Ali, Mohammad Wasim, Fazalhaq Farooqi (os), Zeeshan Zameer (emerging player)

Traditionally one of the best teams for recruitment in the PSL, Islamabad have again managed to assemble what is, on paper, a very strong squad with the likes of Colin Munro, Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Abrar Ahmed and Sohaib Maqsood potentially struggling to get into the starting XI.

Although this top five only has one left-hander (Moeen Ali), batting him at three ensures a LHB/RHB combo at the fall of the first wicket, and if Islamabad were keen to have another LHB, Munro can come into the starting XI - although for who, is a tough guess. Islamabad also play spin pretty positively, as shown below:-

Islamabad traditionally bat deep, and this looks again to be the case with this possible XI. The pace department looks well covered via Ashraf, Hasan Ali, Wasim and the high-potential Farooqi, while Shadab Khan and Moeen Ali will be able to turn the ball in opposite directions to utilise match-ups. Against LHB-heavy teams, Paul Stirling might even turn his arm over. Wrist spinner Abrar, who did so well in the Test series against England, might well come in on spin-heavy pitches.

With analyst Hassan Cheema at the helm, it appears Islamabad are well-versed in the benefit of winning the boundary percentage count in matches, with their main batting group being generally above-average boundary-hitters, as shown below:-

Potential Phase Bowling Distribution:-

Powerplay - Pace - Faheem Ashraf, Fazalhaq Farooqi, Hasan Ali, Mohammad Wasim

Powerplay - Spin - Moeen Ali, Paul Stirling

Middle Overs - Pace - Hasan Ali, Faheem Ashraf

Middle Overs - Spin - Shadab Khan, Moeen Ali, Paul Stirling

Death Overs - Pace - Fazalhaq Farooqi, Mohammad Wasim

That bowling distribution looks pretty strong, although an emerging player will need to contribute too. On that subject…

Emerging Players:-

Hassan Nawaz - 20 yo RHB - 20/117 for Northern in recent National T20 Cup

Zeeshan Zameer - 2 games for ISLU last season, RA Pacer with good record for Pakistan U19s - also played a couple of games for Deccan in T10 in 2021

On this evidence, Zameer looks more advanced career-wise, and Nawaz would have to rapidly improve his National Cup hitting to complement the Islamabad United methodology.

Karachi Kings

Potential starting XI

Sharjeel Khan, Matthew Wade (os/wk), James Vince (os), Haider Ali, Shoaib Malik, Irfan Khan Niazi (emerging), Imad Wasim, Andrew Tye (os), Mir Hamza, Mohammad Amir, Tabraiz Shamsi (os)

Karachi attracted quite a lot of criticism at the draft on social media, and it’s not that difficult to see why - it was tough to pick a potential starting XI with nice balance as it’s so hard to see James Fuller - who would provide a decent hitting option at seven with pace-on bowling contribution - getting in ahead of the other overseas players.

A strong left-handed opening duo looks likely, although Wade could contribute in other roles to ensure more L/R combos, while a lot will be expected of James Vince at number three to hold the innings together. The tail looks long, with four bowlers 8-11, Imad Wasim at seven and potentially emerging batter Irfan Khan Niazi at six, with the veteran Shoaib Malik at five.

In my view, it’s Karachi’s domestic recruitment which has landed them in this spot of bother. All of their overseas can contribute, but of course, only four can be picked - but I just don’t see an array of above-average domestic players in this playing group. What they have done, at least, is picked a few young batters with upside including Niazi, plus Tayyab Tahir and Qasim Akram.

However, does this batting group inspire confidence? I’m not convinced:-

As said, a lot will depend on the performances of Vince, plus Sharjeel Khan and Matthew Wade - otherwise I just struggle to see a batting group capable of taking the game away from the opposition on a regular basis.

With the ball, not many of the domestic pacers are proven to be high quality PSL bowlers - with the obvious exception of Mohammad Amir, although the left-armer’s death bowling numbers are starting to be a cause for concern. It feels like Imad Wasim and Tabraiz Shamsi (with Imran Tahir as back-up) will need to get the opposition in a regular struggle with spin, and maybe some turning wickets might be of some assistance.

Potential Phase Bowling Distribution:-

Powerplay - Pace - Aamer Yamin, Andrew Tye, James Fuller, Mir Hamza, Mohammad Amir

Powerplay - Spin - Imad Wasim, Imran Tahir, Tabraiz Shamsi

Middle Overs - Pace - Andrew Tye, James Fuller, Mohammad Amir, Mohammad Umar

Middle Overs - Spin - Imad Wasim, Imran Tahir, Tabraiz Shamsi

Death Overs - Pace - Andrew Tye, James Fuller, Mohammad Amir

Emerging Players:-

Irfan Khan Niazi - 19 yo RHB - hit 153 SR in recent National T20 Cup

Qasim Akram - was 20/130 in recent National T20 Cup, can bowl a bit of off-spin too

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