More IPL Questions

From last week's episode of The Cricket Podcast

I joined the guys on The Cricket Podcast last week on their live episode to chat about IPL retentions and discussing each team in detail - you can listen to it here.

During the episode we got so many great questions from the people watching live that I thought it would be worthwhile posting them and try to answer as best I can where possible.

Before we do that - At the moment, I am not working with a team for the 2025 mega auction. I am also available for media work both for the auction and the tournament. If anyone would like to discuss a role, please get in touch via email at sportsanalyticsadvantage@gmail.com.

General

Cricket Da Tashan: Is still having a scouting team still important in an auction table or just his suggestions with analyst's inputs enough?

I think it depends on what you consider a scouting team. A visual scout probably doesn’t need to be at the auction table because they should have already given clear insight to the management group.

A recruitment/strategy analyst, on the other hand, needs to be prominent at the auction table because their input into the continually evolving auction dynamics is critical.

Benjamin Kahan: Would you approach auction strategy under the belief that pitches will behave similarly to IPL24?

I think a general assumption could be quite dangerous, but all teams should definitely look to assemble a squad which can thrive in home conditions. We’ve seen CSK do this at the Chepauk over many years, while on the flip side, PBKS have struggled in recent times at home.

If a team can win 5/7 home matches at least, it puts them in a great position to go at least 8 wins from 14 and qualify for the knockout stages.

However, with CSK being a clear honourable exception, I think IPL franchises have often been seduced by who the player is, as opposed to whether that player is likely to fit into their team and perform in their home conditions.

Imtiaz Kidwai: Do you think the IPL is shifting away from a league that rewards the development of young talent?

Gone are the days where MI and CSK won every season with continuous cores. I just feel like teams spend all those years developing players and then they're gone by the time the mega auction rolls around.

The mega auction rules don’t tend to benefit the development of young talent. Unless you pick up a player for a really low cost at the mega auction and get three years of value out of them, it’s tough. For example, if you are an 18/19/20 year old player bought one year before the mega auction then it’s pretty much impossible to be retained unless you have such a massive impact.

So, in that situation, a team doesn’t get rewarded for taking chances on young players as a football team might. A football team might sign a young player on a 5-year deal so they have considerable resale value. An IPL team can’t do that.

I think this constrains the development of young players and prevents them from getting more game time. It also has the knock-on effect of too many veteran players being overvalued by teams, because the auction dynamics (particularly mini auctions) tend to reward short-term thinking.

Hannibal: IPL should move away from auction format right?

I love the auction format as a spectacle and I think it’s one of the greatest things about the IPL from a fan engagement perspective.

The only way I’d change it is if the system changed to a completely football-based transfer market, which I think would be incredible for the IPL.

Player Pricing

Navneet Narayan: Thoughts on how much Pant can go for?

I’d be pretty surprised if anyone sells for more than Rishabh Pant. PBKS should, in theory, pick him up but may have to pay around 20 Cr for the privilege, and possibly even several Crore more. I think we can consider 25+ Cr unlikely (although not impossible) given that it is a mega auction and a lot of teams have already spent a considerable proportion of their budget retaining players.

Arora Kartik: [CSK retaining] Jadeja at 18cr is is a big mistake

I also think 18 Cr for Jadeja is very expensive. He’s almost 36 years old and showing dwindling batting output in the format.

However, CSK are a very loyal franchise and that loyalty has served them well in the past. It will be fascinating to see if that loyalty backfires on them this time.

Prabhnoor Singh: Dan does Jurel deserve 14 cr whereas Tewatia who's finished more games than him is getting 4. Is Tewatia getting underpayed?

I think Jurel has obvious talent and upside but I think 14 Cr was not far from double his current market value. I always had Tewatia down as a likely 4 Cr retention - there’s an age difference (and therefore future expected performance level considerations) and also if you look at match involvement figures (average of balls batted + balls bowled per match), Tewatia’s isn’t particularly high.

Delhi Capitals

Notorious: DC management have messed up by failing to retain Pant and releasing Nortje

We don’t know if they messed up or not, because as I discuss later on in the PBKS segment, players have the right to reject retention offers.

For all we know, Pant and Nortje might have turned down those offers. Maybe Ponting has already promised Pant a prominent role and a guaranteed high bid to join PBKS. Maybe DC aren’t convinced about Nortje post injury.

It’s all guesswork as to why certain players were released. It would be nice if teams gave more clarity on their decision making, but I can understand why they don’t.

Mumbai Indians

sai bhargava: Dan you think they should've retained Ishan Kishan to sort out WK and opening position, and try to get Tilak from auction?

In my view Tilak Varma was a must-retain. He is a potential 10+ year player for MI and they can’t risk him going for big money at auction, and I think they retained him at a good price for the franchise.

That doesn’t mean to say they couldn’t retain Ishan Kishan, they just had to release Rohit Sharma instead.

Punjab Kings

anmol srivats: Why on earth would Punjab retain Prabh over Ashutosh??

I would have retained Prabhsimran Singh as PBKS did - I think he’s a bargain at 4 Cr considering his potential. My decision would have been Ashutosh vs Shashank Singh instead.

We also have to remember at all times that franchises might have wanted to keep some non-retained players but the player rejected the retention, so unless a team gives specific insight into the retention discussions (understandably rare) then it’s dangerous to assume too much about the pecking order of players.

Random Account: Have PBKS overpaid for Shashank if SRK and Tewatia went for 4cr?

Arguably yet - if they could have kept Ashutosh for 4 Cr, for example, then I agree.

sai bhargava: Arshdeep, Jitesh how much is Dan looking for them if they have to use RTM for them?

Whether they have to RTM for Arshdeep or not, I’m now leaning to the view that he will likely cost 14+ Cr at auction and he could be the second most expensive player at auction behind Rishabh Pant. I’m not even sure PBKS will have the opportunity to save much on the 18 Cr they could have potentially retained him for, but again, we don’t know whether Arshdeep would agree to the retention.

Jitesh’s tough 2024 season might hit his market value, plus he’s now into his 30s. I have considerably lower expectations for his sale price.

Notorious: Mini Australia at Punjab under Punter?  Iyer v Pant?

I’d be pretty surprised if Pant doesn’t end up at PBKS. They have the biggest auction budget by far, need a captain, and shouldn’t pass this opportunity up to bring in a top-quality domestic marquee player.

I would take Pant over Shreyas Iyer without thinking too much. Pant is a left-hander, which is always a useful commodity, and I believe is closer aligned to the drivers of success in the IPL than Iyer is.

Rajasthan Royals

Abhishek Bhardwaj: Don't you think Rajasthan Royals will have more clarity going into the auction rather than few others team?

It seems to me that RR value this clarity and firming up their plans early. Think back to the 2022 mega auction when they spent a big chunk of their budget early and had to pick up 4 random overseas players late on in the auction. Then, last year, they spent big with a small budget on Rovman Powell who if I remember correctly was the first player to be auctioned in 2024.

This approach has advantages - you can get a clearer insight into the type of player you need to recruit - but has disadvantages too, in that it constrains a team from picking up potential bargains later on in the auction, and also hinders their ability to compete for marquee players as well.

Royal Challengers Bangalore

Rikken Patel: Dan how much should RCB RTM Siraj for?

I’m not sure they will - I heard some chat about them trying to source a different type of bowler. I am sure Siraj will sell for plenty in the auction though. Definitely 10+ Cr, pushing 15 Cr I would think.

Sunrisers Hyderabad

Ravi Kiran: Thoughts on SRH having more Overseas Retentions?

I’m not sure they could do anything else - they were always likely to keep Head, Klassen and Cummins. It will have implications on their auction strategy though.

At the moment, I am not working with a team for the 2025 mega auction. I am also available for media work both for the auction and the tournament. If anyone would like to discuss a role, please get in touch via email at sportsanalyticsadvantage@gmail.com.