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Your questions answered...

First of all, apologies for not getting to these for a while. It’s been a hectic time with county commitments, Hundred Wildcard draft preparation and tournament preparation. Spare moments have been few and far between!

We are here now though, and I want to say a massive thank you to all the people who took the time to ask questions, I think there was a record amount! So this is going to be pretty long, but hopefully also pretty fun. I’ve tried to put all the questions in similar subject areas.

Outliers in the Blast (still a sore subject!):

Lew: How many simulations would be needed to find a Sean Abbott 100 from 34 balls? How does an analyst respond to a scenario like that? Is it just accepted as an outlier from your perspective?

Yeah, you can’t get too worked up about it. Because there is so much cricket played around the world, you see random/extremely unlikely things all the time because it’s just a numbers game. The mistake is reading too much into it and thinking that it happens a lot more than it actually does.

I looked at data from the start of January 2018 in major T20 leagues (last 5.5 years) and only three players have made a century from number 6: Abbott, Dan Christian and Iftikhar Ahmed. Two players made 90+ (Hardik Pandya and Tom Lammonby) while five more made 80+. So in the last 5.5 years in major T20 leagues, only 10 players have made more than 80 in an individual innings batting number six.

In international cricket during that time, only one player (who plays for Belgium!) managed a century from number six, while three players (Sam Billings, David Miller, Mohammad Nabi) made 80+. So it’s even rarer in international cricket!

Add into the mix that Abbott isn’t usually a number six (more like a number eight) and you start to realise quite how extreme an outlier that his innings was.

Player Movement in Cricket/Impact of Franchise Cricket on International Cricket/Business of Cricket:

David: How do you think counties should be more proactive in protecting (and getting compensated for) players they develop and invest in? Obviously some sort of global transfer system would be ideal but we are years away from that so is there something different you would do in the short term if you were in charge of a club?

Agree about the transfer system, think it should come in sooner or later. If not worldwide, then I do think county cricket will benefit from it. My perception is that there are so many bad recruitment decisions made by teams that any structure with a transfer system would give a considerable advantage to those who are astute.

How do counties get rewarded for producing players is kind of a separate topic, because it includes England as well. To be a successful county, do you almost have to have a team of players nearly good enough for England? Thinking of the title winning side for Middlesex a few years back, recent years for Essex as well.

In my view, a county needs to be adequately compensated for player development if they are subsequently unavailable because otherwise they simply won’t have the motivation to do it. Do England need to increase the fees paid to counties for their players? It’s certainly a worthwhile question to ask. In the potential future situation where a county develops a player who then (while in contract) signs a year-long deal for a franchise, surely the franchise needs to pay a fee, and probably a decent one at that. Otherwise the entire player production ecosystem becomes unsustainable.

Neil: Does Franchise cricket need the first class system to create the player pool to allow it to be sustainable in the long term?

Related question, but a different angle slightly. Yes, it does at the moment because that’s where players are being developed. However, if red ball cricket was somehow abolished immediately, and each country had a series of T20 leagues (for example) then I think that scenario would provide the player pool too.

JaayShaan: Can we see more franchise cricket in next decade? Will International cricket gets impacted in future because of Franchise Cricket?

Yes and yes, because money talks. I’m not a huge fan of bilateral internationals because they tend not to have much meaning and are pretty much the equivalent to friendlies in football. Do others have the same view? Probably increasingly so. If you can get consistent packed houses in a franchise league (not a given, but some achieve it) or a mega TV deal for it, then franchise cricket will take over.

Abdullah: What is the financial situation of Lanka Premier League? As now they have massively increased the salary cap from $350K to $1M per team. Are the 5 teams stand to make profit? Is this trend of increasing salary cap will follow to other T20 leagues such as CPL , PSL , BPL?

I’m not really sure about the financial situation of LPL, to be honest. The salary cap increasing is a good thing for most leagues because they need to compete in an increasingly competitive market for the best players.

On the subject of standing to make a profit, I always find it strange that cricket leagues/teams are judged on whether they do make a profit. No one should have a guarantee of profit on their investment. Many football team owners have found that out the hard way. But there appears to be a mindset where this is required in cricket, and probably is a big part of why there isn’t relegation in franchise leagues (the first league that implements relegation will have a huge USP which I think many fans will love).

Kausthub: Do you think franchise cricket shall be played only in separate 6 month window in top-tier men's cricket? Keeping in mind reports regarding contracts in recent time...[they give the below example]

Mar-May- IPL

Aug- 100, LPL, CPL, 6xty, MLC, GT20, ZimT10

Dec-Jan - BBL, SA20, ILT20, BPL, UAE T10, PSL

I don’t think this will happen. Simply because there is too much conflict between various parties objectives to come to any agreement.

Aries: How far away do you think we are from the first official franchise year-round contract?

Probably pretty close, judging by the rumours coming out of the IPL. There are some logistics which potentially have to be worked through, but I wouldn't be shocked if it happened this year or next.

Ayet: Is lpl and mlc at the same time as hundred a worry for best players not coming?

I don’t think the IPL is in direct competition with the Hundred. MLC isn’t quite a clash with the calendar but it probably is for the workload of players. However, I do think that the Hundred needs to evolve in terms of salaries paid to players, because otherwise it will be prioritised less by overseas players - and possibly even domestic ones if they get better offers elsewhere.

MLC is more of a threat to the Blast in my view, because players aren’t stupid - if they could earn the same amount for several weeks in MLC, they aren’t going to be that interested in 6 weeks in the Blast where they have to wait for two rounds of County Championship matches in between and Finals Day is two weeks after the final group matches.

The nonsensical scheduling of the Blast needs to be resolved - and quickly - to avoid this happening. Just play it in a block! There’s no reason why the two rounds of red ball couldn’t have been played after it instead, and then the knockouts taking place over the few days following the last round of the group matches.

Abhisek: Hey Dan, Do you think the Hundred has any future? Don’t you think it would be better for the ECB to start the franchise based tournament in 20 overs format instead of forcing a new rule on the audience?

If the Hundred is stopped (and if the only short-format cricket in England was the Blast), it would probably the biggest financial mistake that any organisational body in any sport has ever committed. You could sell the 8 men’s and women’s teams each to private investors tomorrow and probably pick up £2 billion and that’s a conservative estimate.

This is why I laugh at debates about whether the tournament is making money or not. Whether it does or doesn’t lose £9m a year (as per the reports) is largely irrelevant. Start-ups lose money. How long did/will it take Uber, or Twitter, or other companies to be profitable? I don’t have £9m to lose in a year but if I did, I’d be delighted to lose it if I could sell the business for billions very quickly!

Chak De: Will IPL extend to 7 or 8 months a bit more like the Prem in the future? Is the death of frequent international test cricket upon us? Can we see a champions league t20 starting again, if franchise leagues continue to strengthen? (Soham also asked about Champions League T20).

IPL could well do, it wouldn’t shock me. Alternatively maybe a second IPL in September/October maybe. Test cricket probably financially only works for the three teams at the top of the TV revenue pyramid, so you can understand why other countries may not prioritise it in the future.

Champions League T20 - would love to see it. But there would have to be clear rules on representation (e.g. you represent your domestic team if they and another team you are overseas for both qualify).

Jugal: Do you see a way for non-IPL T20 leagues with IPL ownership like SA20 and MLC to be profitable and keep paying high player salaries without attracting Indian player participation and associated Indian viewership?

In my view, a lot depends on which Indian players participate. If it’s a load of finished players just looking to top up their retirement pot, then I can’t see it attracting much interest. If it’s the big names, then it would be huge for commercials.

I’d imagine IPL teams simply owning the SA20/MLC teams will also be some benefit. Will CSK fans want to support Texas Super Kings? They quite possibly will.

Yosef: will we eventually see a tiered league system when/if leagues become the primary form of the game and at least half the year? And if so how do you see the tiers developing?

I’d like to see some form of tiered system with promotion and relegation, and have written about this a lot. The quicker jeopardy is introduced in terms of both performances and financial investments, the better. You’ll see teams make better decisions very quickly.

In fact, whatever the next short format league to start could do far worse than introduce promotion and relegation as a unique selling point. Whether it will happen is somewhat debatable though.

Suhas: What do you think about the Bash Boost Point rule which is used in bbl? Can Ipl introduce that rule as it will add Competitiveness to the ipl?

I’ve talked about this before, I really liked it. It’s a shame they got rid of it. Most teams were utterly inept in terms of incorporating the dynamics of it into their strategy, so it allowed potential competitive advantages for teams who actually could strategise well. The more rules which create potential competitive advantages the better, in my opinion.

Harshal: What will it take for privately owned franchise cricket to break into Australia? Will private equity find a way to bypass Cricket Australia to run a league, because CA have got themselves stuck in TV Deals for the next 5-10 years with the BBL and seem strangely optimistic.

I’m not really an expert on Australian cricket finances. What I do know though is that private investment is commonplace in most industries and cricket organisations will be very stubborn not to consider it.

Analytics:

Raghav: How much merit is there in the Runs Above Average (RAA) Model?

It depends how it is created, and how well it is created. A model is only ever as good as the person who programs it. If it’s done well, it would be very useful.

James: Hi Dan, off topic but do you have a keeper model? Interesting on your view of impact better gloveman has on each format (thinking Bairstow/Foakes).

Sadly not although I have a pretty good idea (but lack resources) on how to create one - however I do align to conventional wisdom that the better your spinner/on spinning pitches, there’s more scope to pick the best keeper. In longer formats this is particularly the case, in my view. In T20, having a keeper who can’t hit well and doesn’t bat in the top 5/6 can ruin a team’s balance, so recruiters have to be very aware of that.

Harry: I've seen people on twitter saying if a batter starts slow and then catches up their strike rate this is still bad. What are your thoughts?

I may have written about this a few times before! Ultimately it’s a questionable strategy for several reasons.

1 - There is no guarantee the player will catch up. What happens if they are 10 (15) or 20 (23) and then get out? It means your team mates need to strike at 150+ SR as a collective to get a competitive score.

2 - It puts pressure on the team-mates the player is batting with. They often will feel they need to attack more due to the other batter chewing up balls at the other end.

There’s a pretty decent argument to suggest that this strategy is actually more risky (rather than less, which is often perceived) than taking more attacking shot options.

IPL:

MT: Hi Dan, From a scouting point of view, how ahead of the rest are Mumbai Indians? Also, which bowlers do you think are currently flying under the radar that they could maybe look to purchase ahead of the 2024 season?

I’m not entirely sure they are that far ahead. I’d back myself and some others to do a pretty decent job of matching them at the very least. While we aren’t at PBKS any more, the young players we identified have largely enhanced their reputation. Other players who have also developed further were also highlighted.

As for individual players, I’d rather not say. I’m very keen to get back into the IPL so I don’t want to give any assistance to potential rival teams!

Shriram: Hi Dan, Whats your view on the Impact player rule in IPL 2023. Has the whole idea of naming your playing XI after the toss has diluted the effectiveness & strategical thinking for selecting the impact players as team conveniently select 6 or more bowlers while bowling first,and replace a bowler with a batter. Interesting to hear out your views.

I like the rule, but agree that the strategic dynamics surrounding it have got a bit predictable by being able to name the playing XI after the toss.

Maybe a good change would be to make teams choose their XI before the toss, but have an additional overseas player able to be used as the impact sub. With 10 teams and now largely domestic impact subs too, it’s a fair dilution of the player pool quality currently.

Ry: What are your thoughts on the impact rule moving forward? Will it include overseas players and do you think we'll see it adopted in other T20 leagues or even in international cricket in the future? (A few others also asked similar questions).

Yes, and yes! For reasons mentioned above.

Sathwik: Do you think IPL will be more strategic if teams aren't allowed to name their 11s after the toss?

Yes, as mentioned above also!

Mazakiya: What do you think was the issue with Buttler this IPL? Started off alright but then went off the boil. Is it fatigue kicking in or something mentally? I was a bit surprised when Sanjay Manjrekar alluded to his FC numbers being not so great. Is there a pattern or anything?

Mean reversion. Of course, he’s a superb batter but in my view his 2022 season was basically an outlier and pretty much impossible to replicate. This then increased people’s expectations of him pretty unfairly.

Buttler still had a pretty good season this year which was more in line with expectations. He doesn’t really play domestic FC cricket in England and isn’t in the Test team so I’m not sure what Manjrekar is talking about.

Aries: How do you see Brook and Markram's future with SRH and your personal opinions on their IPL career going forward?

Brook has massive potential, but it was unreasonable to expect him to live up to his price tag in year one. Patience is needed, and there are some fascinating strategic dynamics around how/if SRH move forward with him.

Markram is a solid player at IPL level but I felt he was a bit lacking tactically this season as a captain for SRH. However it’s tough to be too critical on him because 1) it was his first IPL as captain and 2) he had a very inexperienced head coach to help him. Could he have been a better captain if he had a worldwide T20 head coach supporting him? Quite possibly.

Rajdeep: How big an outlier has RR been this IPL? They've topped the net bdry % table and still didn't qualify.

Huge outlier. One of the biggest of all time in any T20 league.

Related Question from Srinivas: How do you see GT topping the table with only a marginal diff in Net Boundary Percentage and RR not qualifying inspite of being comfortably ahead in the Net Boundary percentage? Anamolies or is there some other factor at work?

RR already discussed, GT I’m starting to work out their game plan gradually. They are strong on net non-boundary run production/prevention, and are very clear with what they want to achieve in various phases. Throw in a bit of luck which they definitely had in 2022 (not even a bit, they had a LOT that year) and they’ve done really well.

Jugal: In GT’s bowling attack, do you think players like Noor Ahmad and Mohit Sharma would have done as well in other teams or do you think that pressure created by wickets from Shami and Rashid have helped Noor and Mohit buy more wickets than they would have otherwise?

It’s definitely much easier for other bowlers knowing that they have two virtually banker bowlers (in this case Shami & Rashid Khan, who are clear wicket-takers in the PP/middle overs respectively) in their team. Batters will often try to attack the non-banker bowlers as they have little choice if they largely play out the high quality bowlers. So yes, Shami/Rashid Khan probably do assist the other GT bowlers in my opinion.

The Cricketing Hour: How do you think finger-spinners can evolve and remain a mainstay in the modern white-ball game? We saw in IPL 2023 the continued rise of wrist-spinners, e.g. Rashid, Chawla, Chahal.

The challenge is mainly for off-spinners. How many can you think of currently who are elite T20 spinners who don’t bat? This is largely because around 75% of batters are right-handed, and off-spinners turn the ball into their hitting arc.

So, the evolution for off-spinners is pretty clear in my view. Work on deception (could simply be variation in speeds) and a mystery ball which turns the other way. And keep working on being a better hitter!

Bxsandhu: What’s your thoughts about next year PBKS playing xi ?

Related from Alex: What can Punjab do to their squad to improve next year? They looked very good from time to time this year however they didn’t click for long periods.

Something like - Dhawan, Prabhisimran, Bairstow (o), Livingstone (o), Jitesh, S Curran (o), High quality domestic all-rounder, Brar, R Chahar, Ellis/Rabada (o), Arshdeep.

If the recruited domestic all-rounder was a spinner, you could go with a domestic pacer instead of Brar too although the batting depth isn’t fantastic in that case. But bowlers win tournaments!

They have the purse to push for that high quality domestic all-rounder, particularly if they free up 9 Cr by releasing Shahrukh Khan as well.

Backups: Taide, R Dhawan, Bawa, Baltej, Kaverappa, maybe M Short if he has a good MLC/Hundred.

DK: Would you keep/sack the current SRH management? Who are the probable (coaches ) would you suggest? list of players you would buy in next auction?

Tough topic to discuss as it’s not nice to advocate sacking someone. But to put it diplomatically, SRH paid the price for picking inexperienced management which had little in the way of noted upside and it will be interesting to see if they continue to do so.

Major League Cricket (USA):

Justin: Morning, I'm very curious about the American cricket league - I wonder what type of players we will see there, how the format works.

You will be watching it already now! Planning to do something on MLC data in the coming week.

The Follow On: Are there any performers from Minor League Cricket / players who aren't the marquee overseas players who can be expected to make a big impact in Major League Cricket? Additionally, just how big is the gap predicted to be in terms of quality of cricket player between Major League Cricket and other franchise leagues?

The domestic player usage in the MLC is already fascinating. It’s going to be a big part of the write-up mentioned above.

Aries: Do you believe the MLC can surpass the MLS in popularity in the long run?

I see no reason why not. I think it has gigantic potential, the IPL ownership for most teams is a huge plus and I’m excited to see how it develops.