Early IPL Pre-Auction Analysis
Some thoughts on the key players next Tuesday...
With the IPL Auction taking place a week today (19th December), I thought now would be a good time to run through the key players likely to be in demand, and which teams potentially will show interest in them. For clarity with pricing, 100 lakh = 1 Crore = around £100,000.
Obviously I’m not participating in this year’s auction, having previously been with PBKS. I did have chats with another team which didn’t really manifest themselves into anything serious at this stage, but also given that I’m still currently in the Acute Cardiac Unit in hospital until the end of December it probably worked out for the best!
One thing that I want to point out to some of the readers who haven’t followed the auction in detail before is that the auction list (which can be seen here) does not follow in the exact order of players in the list. The sets (column 2/3) will take place in order, but the players in each set will be drawn at random. So, for example, Harry Brook is player one in the list but could be drawn in any of the first 7 lots of the auction which features the first set of capped batters (Set 1 - BA1).
At some stage as well, the auction will revert to the accelerated stage, where teams request which players of the remaining ones on the list (including those who went unsold before the accelerated stage) will be called for bidding. The lot number this occurs will be decided in advance of the auction but as far as I can see, it hasn’t been communicated to the public at this point in time. So, while there are 333 players on the current auction list, not all (probably around half) will even be called to be auctioned. 77 players can be purchased, with a maximum of 30 slots available for overseas players.
With that all out of the way, let’s run through some of the key players in the auction, either in terms of likely talking points and/or going for big money in this mini auction. It’s important to also be aware that my thoughts on what teams may do isn’t necessarily what I do. Some teams will value players more or less than I do, and while you might not agree with my thoughts, but do please keep discussion respectful.
One final point of order though - mini auctions can have a crazy dynamic where there isn’t an abundance of a particular skillset which then leads to bidding wars for a particular player. A lot of good players are going to get unsold. Usually there are plenty of good overseas batters and good overseas spinners who go unsold, but it’s important to recognise that this isn’t necessarily a reflection of the quality of the player. More relevant is that there is an abundance of that skillset (overseas batters), and IPL teams generally don’t like to use an overseas spot on a spinner.
Set 1 - Capped Batters:
Harry Brook (2 Crore base price). Last year Brook was a big-money purchase for Sunrisers Hyderabad, with recency bias prominent. I think Brook is a huge prospect but was hugely overpriced last year and the new SRH management seem to have recognised this. I’d expect Brook to go for around 3-4 Crore this time, so considerably less this time around. In theory, overseas batters who don’t keep or bowl shouldn’t be in high demand in this auction. It wouldn’t even shock me if he went unsold initially and then picked up a couple of bids in the accelerated part of the auction.
Travis Head (2 Crore base price). I think Head could be this year’s Harry Brook. A double-digit Crore sale price has a possibility. Head ticks all the boxes for big IPL pricing - recency bias, playing well against India, and playing well in India - and teams may also be enthused by his occasional off-spin too, as a match-up option. Delhi Capitals could well be the team driven the most to recruit Travis, given the Australian connection, while Rajasthan Royals also are likely to be in the market for an overseas middle-order batter - however there’s scope for Head to cost at least half of their remaining budget.
Manish Pandey (50 lakh base price). How teams value Manish Pandey in the auction could be one of the most interesting stories among domestic players. He’s struggled in recent years, is now 34 years of age, and appears to have a pretty constrained boundary-hitting ceiling. However, Pandey is one of just two domestic batters in the first five sets of players (36 lots), and the majority of teams will be looking to recruit domestic batters. So, scarcity of resources and auction timing could well see Pandey’s price inflate, and that’s also potentially the case for Karun Nair, who is also in set 1 at a 50 lakh base price as well.
Of the other batters in set 1, I’d expect Steve Smith to pick up a bid or two around base price (2 Crore) while Rovman Powell and Rilee Rossouw may have to wait for the accelerated auction to pick up any bids, also probably around the 2-3 Crore mark. Powell may have the greater chance with his lower 1 Crore base price.
Set 2 - Capped All-Rounders:
This is where the drama will happen. Set 2 has scope for a number of big-money purchases, and has the potential to determine plenty in terms of which teams can bully the auction later on with big remaining budgets. A team can’t win an auction in the first couple of sets, but they can lose one.
Gerald Coetzee (2 Crore base price). The South African quick should attract plenty of attention following a strong recent World Cup display where he really broke through in terms of recognition. Recency bias will be to the fore, and teams may also be keen to look at him as a longer-term option who can improve in future years.
I think it’s tricky to assess Coetzee’s likely sale price. I’d be surprised if he was cheaper than 5 Crore, but double-digit Crore couldn’t be ruled out either. CSK could well show some interest, given the Joburg Super Kings connection, while Gujarat Titans are likely to look at pace bowling reinforcements and have the most money to spend at auction.
Pat Cummins (2 Crore base price). After a year out of the IPL, Cummins is back in the auction and should command a decent fee. The Australia captain has an attractive skillset as a high-quality pacer who has the ability to hit down the order, but I’m always concerned ahead of drafts and auctions with Australian pacers given the potential for their workload to be managed.
KKR might show some interest in bringing him back to the franchise, while if CSK miss out on Coetzee, could view Cummins as a broadly similar type of player. GT the same. The auction order between these two players in the first all-rounder set will determine plenty.
Wanindu Hasaranga (1.5 Crore base price). The Sri Lankan leg-spin all-rounder should be of interest to numerous teams in auction after his fairly surprising release by RCB. The reason why I think Hasaranga will go for a high price (8+ Crore) focuses on his extremely rare skillset in this auction player pool, as a high-quality leg spinner who adds batting depth, and is a good fielder as well - he’s a three facet player.
SRH really need this type of player, and with 34 Crore to spend (the second highest budget of all teams), they should go all out for Hasaranga. Punjab Kings could also be a possible destination, after their bidding war with RCB in the 2022 mega auction. It might not even be inconceivable that RCB might have released Hasaranga in an attempt to buy him back at a cheaper price.
Daryl Mitchell (1 Crore base price). Mitchell, who was released by Rajasthan Royals previously despite a cheap salary, should benefit from recency bias following his strong performances in the recent 50 over World Cup. Personally, I don’t endorse a big fee for the New Zealander, who I think will struggle with the ball at this level, and should have a fairly constrained strike rate as well.
Having said that, I expect a few teams to have a difference of opinion to me and I can see someone taking him for 4-5 Crore eventually. Could Rajasthan take him back if they still need a middle order batter? Lucknow Super Giants is another possible destination. He also seems like a CSK type of player.
Azmatullah Omarzai (50 lakh base price). The 24 year old Afghanistan all-rounder is another player with a growing reputation following a strong World Cup. I like his skillset to some extent, with his batting looking like it’s hugely improved, but this level could be a test for his bowling.
It will be fascinating to see the effect of the impact sub rule on the all-rounder market, making it tough to assess the demand for an improving, but perhaps lower-profile player like Omarzai. Anything from unsold to 3 Crore seems a likely ballpark, with his position in set 2 likely to be a major factor in this. If Omarzai is early in the second set, it’s possible he will go unsold and then brought back in the accelerated phase.
Harshal Patel (2 Crore base price). After an underwhelming 2023 IPL season, Harshal finds himself back in the auction after his release by RCB. I can envisage him attracting a fairly similar price to his release price (around 7-10 Crore seems possible) given that there really is a lack of domestic pacers who have had strong recent IPL seasons in the market.
Patel’s all-rounder status in the auction list is arguably a little tenuous, but being in set two is probably of benefit to him. Whether he gets drawn out ahead of Shardul Thakur could determine plenty in terms of his price and destination.
Could RCB make a play to get him back at a cheaper price? Is there potential to be a redemption arc for Harshal Patel at CSK? Perhaps Rajasthan Royals might also be interested, given that they lack all-rounders or bowlers who can bat a bit, although their low budget could scupper the chances of that.
Rachin Ravindra (50 lakh base price). Similar to Travis Head, Ravindra has an ‘auction price treble’ (recency bias, left-handed batter and all-rounder status with some left-arm orthodox spin able to be contributed).
This makes it difficult to establish a ballpark sale price for Ravindra. Personally, I’m not sold on him as a T20 batter (his primary skillset) despite his strong 50 over World Cup performances. Is there a strike rate ceiling and a big learning curve ahead? Possibly.
Despite this opinion, I think teams may be seduced by the auction price treble reasons mentioned. Where will he go? Tough to predict. The teams with lower budgets (Rajasthan Royals and Lucknow Super Giants) might find it difficult to compete in the marketplace for Ravindra. He ‘feels’ like a CSK player, while Delhi Capitals need middle-order batters after releasing a few.
Shardul Tkahur (2 Crore base price). I expect the bidding to be strong for Thakur, whose skillset as a domestic bowler who can add batting depth and some hitting ability is likely to be attractive to a number of franchises.
I’m not too enthused by Thakur myself, given that I find it tough to consider him as a considerably above-average pacer (his primary skillset) and the impact sub rule plays a role as well in terms of potential demand for a player of Thakur’s skillset.
However, teams are still working out the best usage of impact subs, and high-profile domestic all-rounders are always very popular in a mini auction.
It genuinely wouldn’t surprise me if Thakur is among the highest priced players in the entire auction. Most teams will likely be seeking domestic bowlers who can bat, none more so than Gujarat Titans who need to replace Hardik Pandya, who is impossible to replace as a like-for-like.
I can also see the likes of CSK, who love batting depth, being interested, while batting depth is also a trait of Andy Flower’s teams. Now he’s in charge of RCB, could they show interest?
Chris Woakes (2 Crore base price). It’s very difficult to predict the demand for Woakes in the auction, as I would imagine that teams will be keen to ascertain Woakes’ likely availability levels for the 2024 season.
His skillset of being a high-quality new ball bowler, capable of bowling three overs in the Powerplay, plus hitting ability at around number eight, will be very attractive to teams if he’s fully available.
Set 3 - Capped Wicket-Keepers:-
Josh Inglis (2 Crore base price). I’ve made no secret that I really rate Josh Inglis, having recruited him for Leicestershire in 2021 when I was working there, and being top run scorer in the Blast that season.
His 360 degree hitting ability and prowess against spin bowling should stand Inglis in good stead for IPL success, and there are a number of teams who potentially need wicket-keeping reinforcement.
These include Gujarat Titans, Delhi Capitals and Royal Challengers Bangalore. If several teams are keen on Inglis, we could see him sell for 4-5 Crore potentially.
Other keepers in set 3 are unlikely to be of quite as much interest, with the possible exception of Phil Salt. I was surprised Delhi let Salt go after a decent first IPL season in 2023, and the teams interested in Inglis should have Salt on their depth charts too.
I’d be surprised if Kusal Mendis picked up any bids, while KS Bharat has never really broken through at IPL level and is now 30 years of age. However, as the only domestic keeper in the first 50 lots, he does have scarcity of resources on his side. Tristan Stubbs also features in this set, although it’s pretty tenuous to call him a front-line wicket-keeper at this stage of his career. Stubbs will probably accumulate several bids given his low 50 lakh base price, possibly in the accelerated stage of the auction.
Set 4 - Capped Fast Bowlers:-
This could also be a set where some players attract big pricing.
Mitchell Starc (2 Crore base price). I don’t doubt that teams will be seduced by the prospect of Starc featuring for their franchise, but whether he features in the tournament isn’t necessarily a given. I’d be surprised if he plays 10 matches in IPL 2024.
Despite this, I can see Starc going for 7+ Crore. Being a high-profile left-arm pacer from Australia virtually guarantees this. Could Gujarat Titans bust a chunk of their big budget on Starc?
Shivam Mavi/Chetan Sakariya (both 50 lakh base price). With domestic pacers a scarce resource, a number of teams may be tempted to gamble on several younger options who have previously shown a high upside. We can also throw Kartik Tyagi (set 9 - uncapped fast bowlers) into this discussion as well. Tyagi has a mere 20 lakh base price.
I’d imagine most teams will be keen to reinforce their domestic pacers, with the possible exception of Rajasthan Royals, who are pretty well stocked for this. A bidding war for one of these three domestic pacers isn’t out of the question.
Of the other pacers in this bracket, two are domestic. Jaydev Unadkat has previously attracted big prices but I don’t expect this to be the case this time around, while Umesh Yadav is now 36 years of age and has a rather large 2 Crore base price. Both will potentially be picked up as fringe/back-up options.
There are a few other overseas pacers in set 4 as well. Lockie Ferguson’s stock has arguably fallen, but he might pick up several bids around his 2 Crore base price. Josh Hazlewood’s availability is likely to be constrained, but could get a similar price around 2-3 Crore for his possible part availability.
Alzarri Joseph is well thought of by some IPL teams and should get a little bit of interest, while Dilshan Madushanka’s wicket-taking abilities and left-arm angle might be attractive to teams. However, I’d be concerned about the Sri Lankan’s expected economy rate and boundary concession at this level.
Set 5 - Capped Spinners:-
I’d be surprised if any of these six players get bought for anything much more than their base price. This is not because they aren’t good spinners, but the domestic player pool and auction dynamics tend to mean that overseas spinners aren’t popular at auction. In my view, Mujeeb, and maybe Adil Rashid and Tabraiz Shamsi seem more likely to get purchased than Akeal Hosein, Waqar Salamkheil and Ish Sodhi.
Following these first five sets (the first 37 players), set 6 sees the first group of uncapped players (UBA 1 - Uncapped Batters). With there being mixed quality of options from this stage, I’ll do my own accelerated analysis from this point onwards and focus on just a few more players.
This set features Shubham Dubey, a high intent batter from Vidarbha who usually fits in at around number five. A 20 lakh base price means he has a decent chance of being picked up after a strong SMAT which saw him score 221 runs at a strike rate of 187.
The 29 year old is something of a late developer, making his SMAT debut in November 2021, but could be inspired by the career arc of Jitesh Sharma, for example. Would I be more tempted by the upside of Dubey compared to Manish Pandey? Absolutely. Whether the franchises agree with me is another debate entirely.
Several other high intent batters feature in set 7, which is (pretty vaguely) described as Uncapped All-Rounders 1. These include Shahrukh Khan (40 lakh base price) who previously was purchased by Punjab Kings for 9 Crore.
Shahrukh has finishing ability but has low match involvement in terms of balls batted + balls bowled at this level. I think he’s something of a luxury player. I’d expect CSK to be keen on him, but I’d be surprised if he sold for anything like 9 Crore again.
Also featuring in set 7 is Ramandeep Singh from Punjab who was previously with Mumbai Indians. A 26 year old who bowls a little bit of right-arm pace on occasion, Ramandeep helped Punjab win the SMAT this year, often as a high intent finisher. A strike rate in excess of 220 in that tournament will have caught teams attention, and looks to be a low risk/high reward pick-up for a team at just a 20 lakh base price.
The previously mentioned Kartik Tyagi features in set 9 - Uncapped fast bowlers 1 - along with Rasikh Salam. After a spell out of cricket, Salam impressed in the recent SMAT and at 22 years of age, has future potential.
Formerly of KKR in 2022, Salam’s high pace should be enticing to teams and could end up selling for multiples of his 20 lakh base price.
I’d expect a couple of domestic spinners in set 10 - Uncapped spinners 1 - to pick up bids, with leg spinners Murugan Ashwin and Shreyas Gopal the duo with the most IPL experience in the set.
The final fascinating set for me is set 12 - Capped All-Rounders 2 - with several players catching the eye out of the 28 players in the set. With so many players in the set, the draw will have plenty of influence here.
Rehan Ahmed’s skillset and future potential could see him picked up, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Mumbai Indians looked to get him close to base price. He could also be a decent option for SRH or RCB.
Jason Holder has been popular in recent auctions but the West Indies all-rounder’s stock has arguably markedly fallen after a difficult 2023 season with Rajasthan Royals. A 1.5 Crore base price possibly does him no favours either.
Another player at 1.5 Crore base price who has gone for big money previously is Tom Curran, whose batting has hugely improved over the last year or so. I think I’d lean towards Curran over Holder at similar prices.
After breaking through in the last year or two, the young West Indies all-rounder Matthew Forde might also get some attention from franchises. Forde has impressed wherever he has played, and his player of the match performance on his ODI debut against England last week ensures he’s fresh in the minds of decision makers ahead of the auction.
Other players who might earn a contract in this mammoth bracket include Sean Abbott, Jimmy Neesham, Daniel Sams, Matt Short and David Willey, whose availability is guaranteed following England’s decision not to award him a central contract.