December Mailbag!

Your latest questions answered...

Many thanks as always for all the questions for the Mailbag - I love doing these and please feel free to ask away with as many as you would like, even in advance of the next one so I can get as many questions on here as possible.

Here we go, starting off with some questions on T10…

JustRamSamy: “In a league like the T10, are owners/team management more likely inclined to experiment than a Big Bash/IPL per say?”

Experiment is one word for it, I’d probably use a different one. From what I hear from others working with teams, and in my experience of this league, it’s a league with strong owner involvement with regards to recruitment and in some cases, team selection. The irony is that this dynamic allows more professional teams to have a huge competitive advantage, which not many (except for Deccan) have exploited.

Chris: “Would you like to see a T10 comp in England and how would you use it?”

I would love to see it. Despite my opinion that the current T10 is not as meritocratic as it might be, with varying standards and ‘strategies’, I think the format is going to be huge in the future and I’m surprised more countries haven’t already started their own league with the format.

The higher standard of local players in England compared to the UAE could have differing overseas rules too, and having several cities near each other with big stadia to group matches at would be useful too (e.g. Birmingham and Nottingham, or Lord’s and The Oval in London) so the pitches don’t get as worn.

Cricket on your screen: “What difference do you see in a tournament like LPL and Big Bash, where overseas players aren't of great quality and cricket turned out has been poor, to say the least?”

I haven’t seen any of the LPL but I’ve followed the scorecards and data from it. Again, it looks to be a tournament with a big discrepancy in standard and some differing (and not always good!) recruitment strategies.

The Big Bash is a comp I do watch most of the matches of, and I’ve noticed quite a downturn in standard over the years, particularly in the Covid-affected seasons. Ultimately I feel that a T20 league can only be successful if all the national team superstars play in it, and ideally 4+ overseas players too. If the BBL did that, I think it would raise standards hugely. The problem is that it then infringes on longer formats, and the old adage soon arises where you can’t please all the people all the time (or even some of the people some of the time!). But a decision needs to be made in this area or it will continue to fall behind some of the other leagues.

I also was sad that they ditched the sub rule and in particular, the 10 over bonus point - I like rules which allow smart operators to gain a competitive advantage, and I was amazed how poorly the BBL teams in general dealt with that bonus point scenario.

Now for a lot of questions on the IPL…

Vijayarooban: “Is the IPL overhyped too much since the Indian T20 team has been thrashed twice consecutively in a WC match by 10 wickets and are foreigners main beneficiaries of IPL as their standard rise which indirectly helps their national team to beat India in WC matches?”

I don’t think it’s overhyped, for me it’s the best T20 league in the world. I think it’s a bit first-level to draw a relationship between the IPL and the India national team performances, because in my view, India’s selection and in-match strategies were far from optimal - we can only criticise a league or player pool if the national team’s strategies were optimal and they were still losing.

Overseas players/other countries are definitely beneficiaries of the IPL though. It gives the players great experience in a high standard league in front of full stadiums packed with passionate fans, and this is why I feel that the time has now come for India’s players to be allowed to play overseas franchise leagues.

Bazball convert: “Soccernomics noted that players from certain countries are overvalued in comparison to others from different countries - apart from Aussies who are clearly overvalued in the Ipl - is there another nation’a players consistently over/ under valued?”

I think the Australia example you give is obviously the most notorious - although it’s perhaps calmed down a little in recent years - but perhaps the West Indies would be the new overvalued nation. We’ve seen a lot of West Indies players go for big money in auctions but the national team still struggles, and not all those players bought for big money have subsequently justified the purchase price.

This is why teams need an independent, data-driven recruitment analyst in their management. Someone who can translate performances in various leagues to the IPL should be worth their weight in gold, although it does appear from personal experience that teams don’t quite agree with my assertion!

Gaurav: “Who do you reckon will be the most expensive buy in the IPL mini auction - Stokes, Curran or Green? Also, outside of these 3, who do you think will be the next most expensive?”

If the market is efficient, I think Sam Curran should go for the most. However, the order of player lots is a dynamic which can change a great deal. What we can be sure is that the majority of the 10 teams will want one of these three players, and 10 into 3 doesn’t go. Given that, we have an over-demand and under-supply, which will naturally push prices very high.

All three players are in set 2 - capped all-rounders - but the draw is random in each set so any player in the set could be drawn between 7-13 in the auction order. Will teams go heavy for the first player to guarantee the skillset? Or will the final player attract a huge bidding war because 8 teams all want the same player? In fact, both could be possible!

Next expensive? I can see Mayank Agarwal getting a good number of bids - let’s not forget his previous pricing - while given the popularity of all-rounders among franchises, don’t rule out Jason Holder or Odean Smith attracting interest from multiple franchises too - particularly if they are drawn towards the end of set 2 when multiple teams will have missed out on some premium all-rounders. I also wouldn't be shocked if Jaydev Unadkat went higher than people may expect too, given his good domestic form and rarity of domestic pacers with considerable IPL experience in the marketplace.

Mask: “How do you see Joe Root in his current green patch (albeit in tests) adapt to T20s? Is he better placed than the other 3 of the fab 4 currently, for T20s. And how do you see him being used in the IPL, if picked, and which team would he benefit the most?”

I’m very much of the mindset that teams and players should be less obsessed with crossing formats. I’ve written before about how many top batters in Test cricket are anchors in T20, and I don’t think IPL teams should be shopping for overseas anchor batters - they are in plentiful supply in the domestic market.

With this in mind, I wouldn’t be looking at Joe Root as a solution for an IPL team.

Ayet: “Whats ur view on ipl teams bidding on players thats theyre not actually interested in as a counter strategy to drive up the price for the player i.e. rcb with shreyas iyer and steve smith how would you notice and counter it as well”

I think it happens but probably less often than people think. It’s not that difficult to work out which teams partake in this strategy more than others (just find out how many players each team bids on) but it’s a risky strategy for sure, as you could be left with a player whose skillset you don’t want.

It’s all very well and good producing videos after the event glorifying your strategy pushing a rival team to buying a player that you bluff-bidded on, but I’m sure the videos where the team gets stuck with a player they didn’t want may not have made it to social media…

Sarah: “Who do you think are the ‘underestimated’ gems that could rise to the top in the IPL?”

To be honest, I haven’t done much work on the domestic market compared to the last auction when obviously I had the role with Punjab Kings. For that role I spent many days working on the domestic market and felt I had a pretty good handle on player ability and young players with potential.

Due to this, I’ll go with the overseas market, focusing on the younger players in the auction pool:-

Harry Brook

Izharulhaq Naveed

Will Jacks

Will Smeed

Donavon Ferreira

Naveen ul-Haq

Rehan Ahmed

These players might not be regular starters in 2023, but in my view represent good, long-term and probably cost-effective options for teams to invest in.

Matthew: “Which overseas batter will be in the highest demand in the IPL Auction and why will be it be Harry Brook?”

The market dynamics for overseas batters are often quite brutal. Very good but one-skillset overseas batters (e.g. the ones who don’t keep or bowl) often go unsold or picked up at very low prices, despite their ability.

This is why I’m fascinated to see how teams approach Harry Brook. He’s in set 1, and that’s often when teams are a little more cautious with their bidding. His base price of 1.5 Cr is pretty high though, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he went unsold initially before picking up a bid or two later on in the accelerated auction.

Aries: “As someone who worked with Punjab in the mega auction last season, how much do you agree with their retentions heading into this auction (or who else would you have retained/release)? Who do you see the new management targeting, and who would you yourself target?”

Good question - tough for me to comment on the releases and I have no idea who the new management will target, but I’d be pretty devastated if they tore up the squad we assembled. I genuinely think that given time, and average luck, the PBKS squad we picked in February could achieve great things.

Ashish: “Will the owners who own SA20 teams take advantage of those scouting reports they garnered during that auction and take advantage of a relative market inefficiency by getting SA players for cheap or they'll wait for the tournament to take place and then go next mini auction.”

One of the benefits of multi-team ownership is the sharing of information between teams, so I’m pretty sure that will happen. With regards to relative market inefficiency among South Africa players, I’m not sure it really exists. Looking through the auction list, I’m not sure there’s that many SA players who stand out and the older players with the most national team experience have, in my view, a pretty limited ceiling at this level.

And finally…

HL: “Have you played Billings at FIFA yet?”

Sadly not, and that’s probably a good thing for me! My Ultimate Team is far worse than his so maybe I’ll suggest a Tottenham (my team) v Man United (his team) match-up instead when we get the chance!