August Mailbag

Your questions answered...

Plenty of questions to wade through this month, so let’s get cracking with answering as many as I can! I really enjoy this part of the Substack, so feel free to send in any questions in advance of September’s edition.

Lew: ‘Have you noticed a trend in white-ball county cricket recently where shallow batting lineups have seen an increase in output from top order bats?

I'm thinking Middlesex in Blast in recent seasons (Eskinazi), Essex (Westley) and Yorkshire (top 4) in the Royal London One Day Cup this season. They have fielded sides with bowlers batting at 6 downwards, but seemingly had above average output from their top order when doing so. It also feels like the Big Bash has had similar occurrences with Sydney Sixers' recent success.

What could the reasons be? Feels too simplistic for it to be just batsmen taking more responsibility, might also be a small sample size or just coincidental performances, but wondered if you had any view.’

Interesting question, but this ‘strategy’ not something I’m particularly aligned to. The players batting in the top six for these teams are likely to be more anchor oriented (if they aren’t then it’s a very risky strategy!) so I’m guessing that the extra output you mention might be runs/balls per dismissal as opposed to boundary percentages or strike rates.

I think this strategy occurs more by accident than design. Probably a mixture of poor recruitment/roster management and some injuries/Hundred/international call-ups would be my likely explanation.

James McCaghrey: “Interested in your thoughts on Eskinazi, whose form over the last few years in list A cricket have been incredible. Should England be considering him?”

More Eskinazi chat. He’s played unbelievably well this year, and last also. I’ve asked a few people who know him or have played with him as to why he didn't get a Hundred deal and they didn’t really have an answer either. Classic case of reality being different to perception?

Raheel: ‘Hi Dan, does it still classify as a matchup if a batter keeps getting caught at deep trying to take on a certain bowler?’

A match-up is much more than a specific batter v bowler. Because the sample size for these individual player match-ups are tiny, it’s very difficult to have any confidence that the dynamic will persist in the future (and that’s the entire point of using historical data, to attempt to predict what will happen in the future as accurately as you can).

I guess you’re also referring to the context here regarding how the dismissal occurs - this is also another danger of tiny sample sizes which is why I tend to try and avoid these scenarios as much as possible.

Also Raheel: ‘"Batters win you matches, bowlers win you tournaments" if justifiable how can one justify this statement?’

Ultimately what matters is to be able to consistently defeat the opposition by boundary percentage in matches, which leads to being able to beat rival teams by boundary percentage in group stages.

A team with a net boundary percentage of >1% in a tournament would be pretty unlucky not to qualify, while a team with a negative net boundary percentage rarely manages to do so - a consistent theme across all T20 leagues except for the ones which are ludicrously easy to qualify from (e.g. 4 from 5, 4 from 6).

Of course, winning the boundary percentage count is a two way street. A team can either do so by being batting-dominated, or bowling-dominated, or well balanced - but win this count you must if you are to succeed.

Cricketfreaker: “Is any csa league teams approach u for their draft or auction strategy!?”

Not at the current time. However of course I’d be very open to discuss the right project. sportsanalyticsadvantage@gmail.com.

Punjabi_gabru: “Do you want any changes in punjab kings squad for next year”

I was really pleased with the squad we assembled at the auction. However I have no contract for next season yet although would love to continue with the project.

Seb: “Do you find you can adapt your metrics to signing players from lower levels (club cricket, minor counties etc.) or is that more difficult?”

100% I can do this. It’s one of things I did to help Leicestershire rubber-stamp the signing of Louis Kimber (I built a minor counties model), a piece of recruitment which has worked pretty well so far. There’s still quite a few gems at Second XI level too.

Niharika Raina: “Interested to know your thoughts on India's batting approach in T20I this year as compared to last year. Also, what you think biggest challenge will be for KL Rahul and Virat Kohli as they come into Indian team ahead of Asia Cup T20?”

I think they’re gradually waking up to the reality that the format has moved on from 15% boundaries and avoiding dot balls, and that playing low-risk for 16 overs and then trying to tee off is an antiquated strategy also.

The biggest problem is the personnel. I feel that some players - particularly the ones who are borderline undroppable due to who they are - are so wedded to the methods which earned them success in the past that they have the potential to hold the team back. Throw in age-related decline for one or two players as well and it’s difficult for them to play the high intent style which I think should be their template.

Thomas Laver: “Are there any stats to do with player injury you work with, such as calculating the rough likelihood of players getting injured as part of valuation models?”

Kind of, yes. For example I might be less willing to pay my full valuation for a player if they are consistently injured. There’s one very good player who I don’t want to name that’s only available for around 50% of matches, so I’ll reduce down my expected valuation by 50% accordingly. However, that means I’ll basically never be able to sign him because a rival team somewhere will always be willing to take the gamble and pay him more than this reduced amount.

Erika Morris: “Do you think that teams in this years the Hundred have ‘worked out the format’ and not treat it just the same as a T20? If so do you think this is the right approach or should it be treated different?”

I agree with you to a large degree. My data suggests there has been much more batting aggression/intent this year from most teams. It’s not the same as T20, although it’s more similar to T20 than T10.

Having said that, I’m surprised with still is the difficulty most teams have trying to work out a ballpark par score, and also how some batters are seemingly ok with chewing up balls and also, that approach getting zero criticism. We saw a couple of innings such as 15(22) recently and literally it felt like from the commentators (and even on social media) that there was nothing to see here - despite those type of innings almost always being heavily negative.

Bazball convert: “If benny Howell is the best player to have never played for England in short form (in last 10 years) who in your opinion is the second best player to have never played and why ?”

Benny is obviously the number one. I genuinely think it’s a tragedy that he’s never played for England when so many inferior players have been able to do so.

He’s so far out there on his own but there’s also couple of names who are banging on the door I think now. Firstly Will Jacks who looks the real deal, and I was hugely impressed by Luke Wood when we played Trent Rockets a few days back. In my view his bowling in that match was the best pace bowling I’ve seen in the tournament to date (both last year and this). Myself and Kunal Manek picked up Wood for his first overseas deal in the T10 last year and his subsequent progress isn’t a huge surprise to me.

Also Bazball convert: “Should teams in the 100 be trying to bowl their powerplay quicker (where there are fielding restrictions and you know the matchups) to avoid rushing at the end to beat the cut off? Seems like it would be more valuable to have time at the end of an innings than at the start”

It’s a decent, logical plan. Buying some time earlier could well be worth it. I like the cut-off system but it’s a system which some batters have worked out is easily gamed.

Ollie: “What should be the minimum sample size for a player to be picked for internationals?”

I don’t really have an arbitrary figure, but I’m wanting to see around 250 balls against high level opposition before I really get excited about a player.

Ayet: “Do you think the ipl record auction fee of 16 crore for chris morris will be broken and by who possibly a bowler with low economy, fast bowling all rounder again or a high intent batsmen”

Almost certainly, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it happened in the 2023 mini auction. A few all-rounders didn’t enter the 2022 mega auction and they’ll likely be hot property next year. I’d expect the big bucks to go to all-rounders as opposed to single-skill players such as a batter or bowler, and also because I can’t think of any player right now who would justify such huge money who isn’t an all-rounder.

Charlie Auckland: “If judging purely by performances this summer (Blast, Hundred, T20i), who would be your England WC XI? (And how would they fare?)”

Bit too sensitive to say this right now. If certain things allow, I’ll post about this in detail closer to the event.

Kunal Tolani: “Not sure if you've answered this before, but interested to know how much of a role do data and metrics play in women's cricket now, especially with your work with the Phoenix women? With regards to matchups, identifying power-hitting etc.”

It’s huge across both men’s and women’s cricket. Genuinely there is no metric that I can think of which is applicable to either one or men’s or women’s cricket, but not both.

I’ve hugely enjoyed working with Phoenix women and challenging myself to do work in women’s cricket which I’d never previously worked in. I definitely think that teaching myself about women’s cricket data has been extremely useful and I’d be open to working with women’s teams in the future if the right role presented itself.