Analytics, Team Ownership & Competitive Advantages

Inspired by an article featuring Haralabos Voulgaris...

Today I read one of the best articles I’ve ever read on the application of data/analytics in running a sports team. You can read it here. I’ve known about Haralabos Voulgaris for a while but wasn’t aware he’d bought Castellon, a Spanish Division 3 football team.

So much of what Voulgaris said in this piece resonated so much with me, given that although I’ve not owned a team, I’ve been in a lot of parallel situations to him in the cricket industry prior to his purchase in Spanish football.

It is my true belief that any T20 franchise who wants to take a serious approach to analytics, decision making & accountability will have a serious competitive advantage.

Yet, to the best of my knowledge, and I’m pretty sure that this is a 100% true assertion, not a single T20 franchise has ever taken the approach which Voulgaris has done with Castellon - leaving the entire industry wide open to giving up a huge edge over time by an ownership and decision-making model which is data-driven and removes emotion. As far as I know as well, no T20 franchise has a Director of Cricket or General Manager with an analytics background.

Over the last year or so I’ve become seriously interested in running franchises and becoming part of an ownership group in some way, shape, or form. Had some serious discussions with a major franchise league, although their business model wasn’t conducive to long-term investment.

If anyone is interested in discussing investment and running a franchise from the top down, please do get in touch with me via email at sportsanalyticsadvantage@gmail.com.

It is my belief that the approach highlighted here would not only yield significant competitive advantages on the pitch, but it would dramatically increase a franchises value and commercials simply due to this success, plus communicating and marketing better than existing teams (another area where franchises are often found lacking).

I’ve highlighted some of the quotes from the article here for discussion. I’d love to hear your thoughts on these.

“I learned and became very, very successful. It’s not arrogant: I’ve done the work, had a bunch of stupid ideas, lost and ditched them until everything left is predictive.”

This is very similar to the advice which I mentioned in the first episode of Strike Rate: The Cricket Analytics Podcast, released today here. Essentially, take a lot of ideas (I write them in the notes app on my phone) and then find out what works.

I know what drives success in T20 teams - what metrics are non-negotiables for success - because I’ve done the work. What’s left is now predictive - recruit players whose skills fit these non-negotiables.

Referring to Voulgaris’ journey into working in professional sport, I found this quote interesting: “With other teams interviewing him – or, he suspects, “just mining me for information”.

This happens a lot, and goes along with what I mentioned in that podcast episode. I’ve had a lot of people in cricket (not just teams or people at teams) ‘mining me for information’ and then ghosting me. If you’re getting into the industry, please don't make the mistake of giving away much for free.

“Voulgaris quietly guided recruitment before the 2011 championship-winning season, then formally joined in 2018, in effect running basketball operations. He was the data-driven revolution, analysing players, building strategies – “coach Carlisle can say whatever he wants; I pushed for their five-out offence” – identifying failings and challenging assumptions. He was seen as an outsider, an intruder.”

It’s very easy to empathise with such a situation. If you challenge conventional ‘wisdom’, prepare to be perceived as a ‘creator of problems’. There aren’t many decision-makers in cricket who value robust challenges. It’s why I’m currently leaning my future plans toward the team ownership/running model I mentioned.

“Many owners don’t know what they’re doing and the real goal of decision-makers is to keep their job,” he says. “I didn’t know they would kill for it. It was like a big gossip factory. There were good people but some were assholes. Players are paid a lot very young, given a level of fame and adulation …”

And “I’m not spending the emotional energy trying to convince the owner.’ I wanted to be the decision maker.”

I couldn’t possibly comment on this apart from saying that owners should delegate the decisions to people who know what they are doing in their individual areas of expertise, and ‘blame aversion’ is a thing.

“Buying a third-tier team makes sense because we feel we have an edge, there are inefficiencies we identify, and the pyramid structure is super-rewarding: good work gets you promotion, bad gets you relegated. In US sports the worst teams are rewarded. There’s systematic tanking for an entire season. Here, it’s high stakes, meritocracy. Relegation makes European sport beautiful.”

I’ve said similar things in line with regards to cricket for a while. Until there are more implications for failure, and rewards for success, teams won’t have the incentive to change their methods. The only other way this can happen is if a data-driven team does so well that it embarrasses other teams into action.

“We’ll spend but I won’t throw $350,000 at some 35-year-old. We’re doing it differently. Young players, proper coaches, staff, the right facilities.”

Exactly how it should be. T20 franchises have little grasp of the age/decline curve for players, and often make emotional decisions when assessing future expected performance levels compared to previous performance levels when players were at their peak.

“We’re spending a lot on analytics, player evaluation. It’s a challenge but if you’re good at player trading you’ll be fine. Clubs like Brighton have done it.”

It is quite incredible how little most franchises in T20 cricket are willing to spend on analytics, yet will be quite happy to spend on players who are never likely to play or add future expected value.

If an IPL team saved 2-3 Crore (around £200,000 - £300,000) from their auction budget and invested that in a really good analytics department their expected points per game increase would be far greater than what the 24th and 25th member of their squad will yield.

I have little doubt that if a county in England cut one or two players from their squad and invested that money in analytics instead, the same would apply.

“I’m overbearing in squad composition,” Voulgaris admits. Is that hard for the sporting director? There’s a smile. “We don’t really have one.”

I think we can assume that he makes all the recruitment decisions as the owner with an analytics background. Much better than an owner who is doing it as something of a hobby, which often appears to be the case in T20 cricket.

“Coaches that aren’t very sharp say: ‘Your models don’t tell you that.’ Actually, they do. I had a conversation with an assistant coach who didn’t believe in data at all. He’s been married 15 years. I said: ‘Who knows you better? Your wife or your Google search history?’ His face …”

Been there, seen it, had these conversations. There are some people (players or coaches) who you can say the sky is blue and the grass is green and they’ll insist that the sky is green and the grass is blue. Unless they understand what you can offer very quickly, they’re not worth your time.

“You get coaches who are disparaging of analytics. It’s a culture war; that’s why I wanted my own team. Now if I have someone like that – and I did when I took over here – they’re gone.”

I don’t think I can add anything to this. It’s exactly how I’d approach things too.

“It’s a chance to genuinely affect people’s lives and I wouldn’t change anything. This is perfect.”

After the IPL Auction in 2022, and throughout the last couple of seasons, the sheer number of Punjab Kings fans who have got in touch and (to paraphrase them in general) say that they’ve enjoyed watching the team we assembled far more than any other seasons makes me feel just the same way.

Finally, as mentioned earlier, over the last year or so I’ve become seriously interested in running franchises and becoming part of an ownership group. If anyone is interested in discussing investment and running a franchise from the top down, please do get in touch with me via email at sportsanalyticsadvantage@gmail.com.